"The most likely trade construction, if talks were to progress to the serious stage, would send Deng to the Wizards for the No. 3 pick and center Emeka Okafor, who would have to formally opt into his contract for next season ($14.5 million) this week for the trade to go through."
The Bulls have been flirting with the idea of trading Luol Deng and could be using this, along with speculation of talks with the Cavaliers, to gauge the trade value of this All-Star swingman.
Via Marc Stein/ESPN
Monday, June 24, 2013
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Welker or Amendola?
It was clear the Patriots were mentally ready to part ways with Wes Welker. They had 2 years to work out a new, long-term deal if they so desired. Additionally, they difference between New England's final offer and what Welker got from Denver is nothing more than a mere $2 million.
People say why would New England take Amendola for $6 million a year over Brady's friend and safety blanket, Mr. Wes Welker. The answer is a number. No, not receptions, yards, or touchdowns. A more important number: age. Danny Amendola is 5 years younger than Welker and is now under contract through the 2017 season. Let's break down the specifics of this complex contract New England agreed to with Amendola.
It's actually a 5 year deal for $28.5 million, with incentives worth $2.5 million based on his health. Which is how the $31 million figure surfaced. Amdendola will receive a $6 million signing bonus, earn a guaranteed base salary of $2 million in 2013 and $3 million in 2014 ($2 mill of which is guranteed). He then earns salaries of $4 million, $5 million, and $6 million per year in 2015, 2016, and 2017 respectively. So really, this deal is the same (in terms of guaranteed dollars) as the 2 year, $10 million deal they threw at Welker. Again, Amendola is 5 years younger than Welker and is now locked up to reasonable money for 3 more years than Welker would've been under contract. The similarities between these two guys are irrey, down to the university they played college ball at. Welker was relatively unknown until he landed in New England. Amendola is much more well-tauted and New England even protected themselves with a per game incentive to cover his injury risk.
People say why would New England take Amendola for $6 million a year over Brady's friend and safety blanket, Mr. Wes Welker. The answer is a number. No, not receptions, yards, or touchdowns. A more important number: age. Danny Amendola is 5 years younger than Welker and is now under contract through the 2017 season. Let's break down the specifics of this complex contract New England agreed to with Amendola.
It's actually a 5 year deal for $28.5 million, with incentives worth $2.5 million based on his health. Which is how the $31 million figure surfaced. Amdendola will receive a $6 million signing bonus, earn a guaranteed base salary of $2 million in 2013 and $3 million in 2014 ($2 mill of which is guranteed). He then earns salaries of $4 million, $5 million, and $6 million per year in 2015, 2016, and 2017 respectively. So really, this deal is the same (in terms of guaranteed dollars) as the 2 year, $10 million deal they threw at Welker. Again, Amendola is 5 years younger than Welker and is now locked up to reasonable money for 3 more years than Welker would've been under contract. The similarities between these two guys are irrey, down to the university they played college ball at. Welker was relatively unknown until he landed in New England. Amendola is much more well-tauted and New England even protected themselves with a per game incentive to cover his injury risk.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
NFL Free Agency 2013
Wes Welker (WR)- Denver Broncos (2 years, $12 million)
Danny Amendola (WR)- New England Patriots (5 year, $31 million)
Reggie Bush (RB)- Detroit Lions (4 years, $16 million)
Mike Wallace (WR)- Miami Dolphins (5 years, $60 million)
Shonn Greene (RB)- Tennessee Titans (3 years, $10 million)
Josh Cribbs (KR/WR)- Arizona Cardinals
Rashard Mendenhall (RB)- Arizona Cardinals
Glenn Dorsey (DT)- San Francisco 49ers
Dashon Goldon (S)- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 years, $41.25 million)
Jared Cook (TE)- St. Louis Rams
Martellus Bennett (TE)- Chicago Bears (
Danny Amendola (WR)- New England Patriots (5 year, $31 million)
Reggie Bush (RB)- Detroit Lions (4 years, $16 million)
Mike Wallace (WR)- Miami Dolphins (5 years, $60 million)
Shonn Greene (RB)- Tennessee Titans (3 years, $10 million)
Josh Cribbs (KR/WR)- Arizona Cardinals
Rashard Mendenhall (RB)- Arizona Cardinals
Glenn Dorsey (DT)- San Francisco 49ers
Dashon Goldon (S)- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 years, $41.25 million)
Jared Cook (TE)- St. Louis Rams
Martellus Bennett (TE)- Chicago Bears (
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Knicks vs. Magic Post-Game
What stands out most from this win is how Amar’e Stoudemire seems to have put any worry Knick fans had about him hurting team chemistry to rest. Stat was a perfect 7 of 7 from the field, continuing to show the 50k he paid Hakeem was well worth it. Amar’e also seems to be very accepting of his bench role and played agressive defense (2 blocks in 21 minutes).
Stoudemire wasn’t the only Knick doing some scoring tonight. Of course there was Carmelo, who actually didn’t score his first points until well into the 1st quarter, set the record for most consecutive 20+ point games by a Knick (scoring exactly 20 tonight). Melo also contributed 7 boards and 5 assits, as he was consistently being doubled team. Felton added 15 points (3-6 from long range), most of which came in the first period when he had to step up for Carmelo. What impressed me how Felt remained a facilitator the rest of the game, racking up 9 assists. This was especially crucial with Kidd missing this game due to his lingering back injury. JR ended a poor shooting month with a surprisingly efficient night. He shot 50% from the field (although he only took 8 shots), hit both his 3’s, and showed his versatility by grabbing 5 boards and getting 4 dimes.
The Knicks had six players score in double figures, and these last 2 may come as a shock: Pablo Prigioni and Tyson Chandler. For Tyson, I don’t know what’s more impressive: that he scored 21 points or that he did it while shooting over 90% from the field. If Chandler can do that even only a little bit more frequently (especially in the playoffs) then I have no idea how any team can stop this offense. Like Felton, Chandler stepped up in the 1st as Melo had yet to get hot. It was just lops and put backs for Tyson this game—we saw him aggressively post-up, as well as take a jump shot (although it was a miss).
The final score may give off the impression that the Knicks coasted to a 16 point victory; but this game was dead even at halftime. In fact, for a while it looked like Jameer Nelson and J.J Redick were Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Orlando’s starting back court combined for 36 points on 14-for-20 shooting in the first half. Woodson, who was clearly furious at this, will be sure to sit Iman Shumpert down and let “rook” know how that kind of perimeter defense is simply unacceptable.
The guy in our rotation who really has been struggling was Steve Novak. And those struggles continued for most of tonight’s game. Novak missed the first 4 threes he attempted and continued looking afraid on the court. Finally, as the Knicks were pulling away, the Knicks started looking to get Novak some open looks so he could regain some of that shooter’s confidence—and boy did it work. The funk (hopefully) is over as his last 3 attempts from long range were good. Novak had made just 1 three-pointer in the previous 4 games.
Hopefully the strong second half performance is a sign of things to come. With no game tomorrow I’m sure the team will look to focus on perimeter defense and rest up some of their lingering injuries. After the day off, the Knicks have back-to-back home games Friday and Saturday, against Milwaukee and Sacramento respectively.
Aside from hosting the Clippers on February 10th, the schedule looks relatively easy heading into the All-Star break. The Knicks better take care of business the next 14 days before some much needed time off.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
New York Knicks 1st Quarter Evaluation
With Tuesday's win against Brooklyn, the Knicks have played 21 games so far--exactly 25% of the season. I picked this time to write my first opinion/analysis on my favorite team because, 1. I think a quarter of the season is a big enough sample size to judge a team, as well as the rest of the league, and 2. In the last week we've had 3 HUGE moments occur (JR's game winner, the 20 point rout of Miami w/o Carmelo, and tonight Kidd/Melo letting everyone know who runs New York).
Personally, it's hard to pick one specific game as my favorite. Both Miami games were statement wins (for different reasons), the buzzer beater in Charlotte was a thing of beauty, shutting up Brooklyn fans for the time being extremely satisfying; but if I had to chose, I'd probably go with the dark hose--the win on the road against San Antonio. It's the last time we were undefeated. That's when we proved ourselves. We put the NBA on notice, the Knicks are a contender.
Quite frankly, I don't mind being snubbed by the media (although we are getting significant love now) or other basketball fans. Being a Knick fan hasn't been easy. Prior to 2010, fans memories are filled with bad trades, erroneous contracts, and disappointment after disappointment. The only thing more certain than having a lottery pick was trading it away in some deal for a washed-up player, well past his prime (cue Stephon Marbury). The pain of losing out on LeBron was transformed into optimism upon the arrival of Amare and a new found hate of Miami. It wasn't long before fans (including myself) got greedy for stars and essentially demanded we trade every asset for Carmelo. Turns out that trade worked out just fine. We finally got our franchise guy (because God know where'd be if Amare was the face of this team...).
The 2010-2011 season was put on hold with the midseason acquisitions from Denver. Additionally, although much brighter, 2011-2012 expectations were also inevitably "calmed" by injuries and the quagmire that was 'Linsanity'. Only 1 win to show for the work/change during those two seasons; but I'm not complaining, two consecutive years of playoff basketball was enough to appease me.
Now I want more. I, and every other fan, suffered through the abysmal management moves. We tolerated the horrible play on the court for the promise of "Summer 2010." It took two seasons, but THIS is the real "fresh start" we were promised. Call the past two seasons a "clean-up," an experiment, call it whatever you'd like. To me, it was a tease. A tease at what playoff basketball is. Watching LeBron get his ring was enough to put me over the top. I'm hungry again.
I'd like to take the time to give credit to the organization for what it's done in preparing for this season. Retaining Mike Woodson (finally emphasizing defense), bringing in veteran/role player, and making smart financial moves.
There's no doubting that the age of this roster doesn't give off the impression of a bright future. The only young asset we have is Iman Shumpert. Our window is the next three seasons, and not just with our core; but with the entire roster. I sincerely applaud Dolan/Grunwald for letting Jeremy Lin walk. Many fans, including myself, had harsh to say regarding the offseason.
Raymond Felton looks like the guy who was running our offense back in 2010. Jason Kidd makes up for whatever athleticism he's lost with his intellect, leadership, and clutch gene. Having that duo in our starting back court was something I never envision 6 months ago. Kidd has really aged gracefully into a SG. He's one of the best at doing exactly that, shooting; plus, he's always been one of the best rebounding guards in the league's history. Felton, coming off the "overweight" fiasco in Portland, has been playing beyond anyone's expectations. Throw in Pablo Prigioni to finish off the our trio of playermakers and it's a big improvement from the Douglas, Baron Davis, and Mike Bibby tandum we had leading our playoff team.
Aside from Jason Kidd, the most crucial signing of the offseason will turn out to be Ronnie Brewer. The news came late. We got him for a minimum deal. But the former Chicago Bull will play a key part in our further success. The one thing we've been missing is role players. Guy to play defense, rebound, do the little things. Landry Fields has been used in that role; but we all knew he never would pan out to be the solution. The Raptors saved us by grossly overpaying him to the point where we were glad to let him walk away. Bluff called, Toronto. Brewer has made the absence of Iman Shumpert's stellar defense much less noticeable. I also expect a seamless timeshare to occur when Shump returns in January. The possibility of two elite defenders on the wings gives me hope we can contain even the most prolific offensive attacks (i.e Westbrook/Durant and Wade/LeBron).
If Mike Woodson can tinker to garner the most product out of Amare and bring him off the bench, watch out. A pretty substantial bench just got scary good. JR should be a 6th Man of the Year candidate (if not the favorite, especially with the Harden trade). He, along with Felton, have provided that secondary scoring option. Smith seems to have left his baggage beyond. Less and less have we seen the poor shot selection and imaginary defense. He's making plays/getting assists, helping out on the boards, and taking on the challenge of guarding some elite scorers. JR's bargain contract ($2.5 mill is OUTRAGEOUS) makes his contributions even more amazing. The talented scorer from his Denver days is still in effect; add on greater efficiency and a new "team first" mentality, we have a terrific leader for our 2nd unit. No discussion of the bench is complete with talking about Steve Novak. The fan favorite, undoubtedly the best shooter in the NBA, and the man who seems to shine in the brightest moments. I'll take his lack of ability on defense to see his "discount double check" celebration. Put him on the other team's decoy, let him space the floor and drill 3s, and hope he can just provide enough rebounding to validate his minutes.
Our veteran's big haven't really needed to play many minutes due to Chandler's phenomenal performance yet again. This is quite beneficial seeing as Marcus Camby seems to be suffering still from his nagging injury and Kurt Thomas is simply nothing more than a 8-10 minute guy. Once Camby is healthy (let's let him take all the time he needs as long as he's ready for the stretch run) we'll be able to give Tyson more rest and add a true big man to our 2nd unit. Camby offers little to nothing on offense; but rebounds and defends with all his heart. I just hope Rasheed 'Ball Don't Lie' Wallace stays in good graces with the officials and can provide some veteran bench minutes. If nothing else, he stretches the floor as defenders MUST honor his 3-point shot. The reason he wanted another shot in to play was because he felt his ability to defend opposing big men (specifically young ones), and subsequently post them up (aka "school" them) warranted a roster spot. He's been playing BIG minutes and even taking over at "center" when we go with an all-bench lineup.
James White and Chris Copeland, in some order, will take their places on the bench in street clothes once the Knicks return to full health. At some point, the inevitable nagging injuries will probably lead to one or both of them being called upon to man the bench and be ready for garbage minutes. Until then, I'm ALL for giving them as many minutes as we can spare--rest our aging rotational players, prevent injuries, and see what we got in to journeymen. Like I've stated, our only young asset is Shumpert. I doubt either White or Cope become anything substantial, not even guys who could crack our rotation; but I like the confidence James White displayed in the Miami game (when it wasn't completely over). We know he's a high-flyer; but I enjoyed seeing his jump shot, passing, and most of all "ability" to guard LeBron (not to any degree of success, just enough "skill" to man him up and be a body in front of him). Copeland had one game where he played 10 minutes of very impressive basketball. I always like having the "big man project" (i.e. Anthony Randolph, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrelson) because you never know when one of them can turn into a version of Portland's J.J Hickson (a guy I'd love on our team). With salary not being a concern, why not keep them on the roster. Maybe give these guys time in the D-League to keep their competitive level up. We don't have 2nd round picks in the next few drafts (used as "throw ins" for our multiple sign & trade deals) and Denver owns our 2015 1st rounder, so getting a player (even rotational) through the draft will be difficult. We do finally have a first round pick this year (which will hopefully be towards the latter portion of the draft) and maybe we can strike gold again and find another Iman Shumpert prospect. From what I've seen in Mock Drafts, experts have us taking a PG. It makes sense since that's a position where a lot of teams have been locking up their guys. Honestly, I'd put my faith into Grunwald and hope he goes with "best available." Find some value. Not someone who's going to be overseas for 3 years or that we'll cut before the preseason. I want to add some youth. Many of our role players are signed to 1-year deals, and even our core has a 3 year expiration date. It will be interesting to see our mentality when the books clear in 2015. We also have our 2015 1st rounder, as well as one in 2016 so we should be able to use those to find guys to develop into "7th or 8th men." Don't get me wrong, if a trade offer comes along requiring the inclusion of 1 of these picks, I'll pull the trigger. Maybe the salary space from Stat will be used to add a big name FA for a run in 2015-2016 (I'm assuming we re-sign Melo, to make him a Knick for life). Bill Simmons made a mention to this in an episode of the B.S Report, how NBA contracts in the $10-$12 mill per year range (i.e these 4yr $40-$48 mill deals) are the downfall of NBA teams. Max contracts, combined with role players in the $5 mill range, and cheap veterans/young guys is the formula to win--the formula Grunwald has implemented.
Finally, Carmelo Anthony is an MVP candidate. No one EVER doubted he was a top scorer in this league; but now he's doing the little things. Melo is playing defense, diving into the stands for loose balls, and most learning from Mike Woodson about how to be a team player. He even embraced playing down low, something I hope continues even when Amare returns. As long as we keeps playing (on both sides of the ball) at his current level, we have a shot against any team.
Monday, December 10, 2012
All-USC NBA Team
G: Gus Williams
G: Bill Sharman
G: Paul Westphal
F: Cliff T. Robinson
F/C: John Block
6th Man: O.J Mayo
Glue Guy: Brian Scalabrine
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
NBA Eastern Conference Over/Under Wins Total
Atlanta Hawks
Addition by subtraction. They made big headlines dealing Joe Johnson (and his atrocious contract) to Brooklyn. With a healthy Al Horford, and Josh Smith playing for a new contract, I think this team does even better than last season. The loss of Marvin Williams is of no concern, and at worst is an even swap since they got a serviceable Devin Harris in the deal to manage the point alongside Jeff Teague. Danny Ferry deserves a lot of credit for the work he's done this offseason--STEALING Kyle Korver from Chicago and finding a hidden gem in Anthony Morrow. Quite frankly, I think Atlanta's rotation at SG will prove to be statistically more productive than Joe Johnson, for a fraction of the cost. I think this team goes way over and could realistically finish as the 3 seed. They're in the same group as Brooklyn, New York, and Indiana.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Boston Celtics- o/u 50.5 Wins
Getting a healthy Jeff Green back. Adding Jason Terry and Courtney Lee. Drafting Jared Sullinger. Plus a half-decent Darko. The only loss? Ray Allen to Miami. Honestly, Jason Terry > Ray Allen. Plain and simple. KG and Pierce will play less minutes; but the depth on their bench will help keep the vets healthy. This team's MVP is Rondo. It's his team, no questions about it. The one hole is a back up PG, a position Doc Rivers has said will be filled by a committee of capable ball handling SGs. 51-31 I'd go way higher if it wasn't for the fact that Boston will probably be able to rest guys often and secure the #2 seed fairly early. What draws me to the over is that in the likely scenario that another team emerges from the 2nd tier to battle them for the second seed, Boston will have to go all-out down the stretch. In that case, along with the "Ray Allen extra motivation factor" which will give them a few extra wins that they probably don't deserve, the number creeps up to 54. This is the first of my 3 jinxes. I pray this goes under, in the hopes New York makes a play for the division title and a top 4 seed.
Pick: Over
Brooklyn Nets- o/u 44.5 Wins (-130 on the over)
The big move to Brooklyn is finally complete. We saw the fancy new arena and "classy" jersey styles. After acquiring Joe Johnson and resigning Derron Williams, this team really does look like a fantasy team. The biggest issue with this team will be can they stop anybody? Where is the defense going to come from. Brook Lopez is not a force down low. I suppose Gerald Wallace is still an elite defender, but that's about it. As seen by the -130 juice, clearly the public is betting the over. Quite frankly, I think the new city, new arena, new owner, new jerseys, new fan base will all factor together to give Brooklyn a few extra wins. I put this team at around 45 wins though, so it's a close call (and if the public keeps it up we could see this increase to upwards of 45).
Pick: Over
Charlotte Bobcats- o/u 19.5 Wins
In all honestly, I think 19 wins is the exact number. This is a BAD team. They'll be in the hunt for the #1 pick again this season. The only way you could get me to watch the Bobcats play in person is if you promise me a seat next to MJ. Charlotte will somehow manage 12-18 wins, no more.
Pick: Under
Chicago Bulls- o/u 48 Wins
WAY too high. No D.Rose until when? January? February? That's the biggest question mark going into this NBA season. Plus the front office completely destroyed the "bench mob" which will make filling in for Rose even harder. I think they sneak into the playoffs and once they get healthy, no one is going to want to see them in the first round.
Pick: Under (LOCK)
Cleveland Cavaliers- o/u 31.5 Wins
I think Kyrie will be an MVP candidate this season. Unfortunately, I really dislike the selection of Dion Waiters. This team will go as far as Irving can take them. Maybe Varejo can help teach Tristan Thompson mature into what scouts though he could be.
Pick: Over
Detroit Pistons- o/u 32.5 Wins
I think this team gets upwards of 35 wins. I'm a big fan of their young nucleus. They were almost a .500 team in the 2nd half of last season. Detroit only needs to improve by 2 games from last season's pace to get over this total, I definitely think they've gotten at least "2 wins" better.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Indiana Pacers- o/u 50.5 Wins (-130 on the over)
I don't think this team is as good as last year. I think they get to 45-50 wins. Indiana doesn't have a real superstar. Just look at the Atlanta Hawks (who traded away a max. player), they have TWO players better than ANYONE on the Pacers roster.
Pick: Under
Miami Heat- o/u 61.5 Wins
Injuries could obviously derail this number. Another issue could be if they decide to "cruise" through the season (a la San Antonio) and take nights off, knowing they can shift gears in the playoffs. With all that being said, I think this goes over easily. LeBron is embracing playing power forward and Erik Spoelstra is vehement about this "position-less" basketball. It's scary to imagine the possibilities after adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen--2 DEADLY shooters. Throw in a healthy Wade, 65-17 is my guess. You can't predict injuries, and to hit 62-20 you can't have any significant injuries--that's the only thing preventing them from being one of my "locks." As a Knick fan, this is also (hopefully) a jinx. I'd gladly take the hit to my wallet if it means seeing this team fall apart.
Pick: Over
Milwaukee Bucks- o/u 37.5 Wins
I think Ilyasova is a stud. Resigning him was one of the most underrated "moves" of the offseason. 5 years, $40 million? Compare that to Amare Stoudemaire... Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are electric, fun to watch guards; but their lack of defense will be the downfall of this team being anything but average. They have about $20 million coming off the books this summer, not counting Jennings and Ellis who are also in contract years, so it looks like they're rebuilding around Ilyasova and a young group consisting of Tobias Harris, John Henson, and Doron Lamb. I watched Tobias A LOT every since he was a Long Island prodigy from Half Hollow Hills. His size and skills allow him to shift between SF/PF, making him an ideal tweener to play alongside Ilyasova and Henson. Personally, I think they should've drafted Tyler Zeller, a bigger body who can play the center position in a fairly "small" Eastern Conference. I can't really see them attracting big name players, despite their cap room, and wouldn't reccommend giving big money to Jennings or Ellis. Things will get worse before they get better in Milwaukee. I think 37 is the perfect number.
P.S This will be the most I/anyone else writes about Milwaukee until 2013 Mock Drafts start springing up.
Pick: Under
New York Knicks- o/u 46.5 Wins (**DROPPED to 45.5 Wins**)
Can I be unbiased here? To start off, anything less than an ECF appearance will be unacceptable to Dolan and Knicks fans alike. To be honest, I was quite disappointed when we let Lin walk. For a team that's had NO issue throwing around money to guys like Jerome James and Eddy Curry, how do you let Lin walk when you can have him for $5 million a season for the next two years. Worry about the back end of the contract in 2015--when you can use him as a trade chip (or better yet, dangle him to LA for CP3 at the deadline this year) or waive him to spread out the cap hit and avoid luxury tax penalties. Larry Coon did a wonderful job outlining the options back in July. But this rant is better suited for another piece. Now I think Amare's injury will really give us a look at how this team could play with him out of the starting lineup. Throw Carmelo at the 4 against smaller lineups, and Thomas or Camby in there versus bigger teams. I think the starting 5, when at full strength, should be: Felton-Shumpert-Brewer-Melo-Chandler. With J.R Smith as the 6th man, Kidd splitting time at PG, and Amare coming in with the second unit. But bench a guy on a max contract? I guess that's why they pay Mike Woodson the big bucks to make decisions like this. Given the injuries (Shumpert out until January, Amare and Brewer out to start the season) and the unprecedented age of this team, I'll put my fandom aside and be object in saying: under. Not by much though. Like mentioned earlier, I put them in the 2nd tier- Brooklyn, Atlanta, Indiana group. That gives the ability to finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th in the East (and means they will most likely have a 1st round matchup with one of those 3 teams). At worst, a slight improvement in seeding over last year. Everything has to go right for this team to reach 50 wins; and a record that's closer to .500 is more likely. This is another instance where I'd happily trade lossing the money for being wrong on this pick. Again, I'm going for the jinx. 45-37.
Side Note (for Knick fans): If you happen to find a $5 bill on the floor I recommend wagering it on the Knicks at +5000 to win the NBA Championship. Why? For the hell of it. I can't even begin to imagine how gratifying it would be to call the Knicks NBA Champions; but the only thing that could make it better would be realizing I won $250 all because I blindly threw down $5 back in October. Now you'll already have the money set aside to preorder that iPhone 6 coming out in September 2013.
Pick: Under
Orlando Magic- o/u 24.5 Wins
At first glance, it seems a little high. Obviously we all know about the Dwight saga; but what's astonishing is how they didn't get back Gasol or Bynum or even Houston's plethora of picks and young assets. Instead they come away with a trio of rotation/average players. Makes no sense. I even think the Ryan Anderson for Gustavo Ayon is a poor tradeoff. I think they're tanking, BIG time. Any potential impacts guys left on this roster will be dealt to strengthen their fight for the #1 pick. Jameer Nelson is going to be the only guy left, a pretty good player; but he just got paid--Any incentive left to perform? Frankly, it doesn't even matter what he does. Orlando is going to be selling its fans on the 2013 draft (not the best draft class to be tanking for). I think their the worst team in the East. Anywhere from 21-26 wins is where I see this team finishing. For whatever reason, I think their recent trend to screw everything up will continue as the finish towards the bottoms of the standings, rather than right at the bottom. Slightly hurting their lottery odds in the process. The possibility that Glen Davis can have a breakout season makes me less inclined to make the under here a "lock." In fact, I almost talked myself into the over by re-reading the last couple sentences I wrote. I better end this now.
Pick: Under
Philadelphia 76ers- o/u 47 Wins
35-47. I could make a case for that to be Philly's 2012-2013 record. The losses of Lou Williams and Jodie Meeks will be greater than everyone thinks. I don't like the addition of Nick Young, who really just chucks up 3 pointers at a high enough frequency that he's now considered a "scorer" and really doesn't much defense. Speaking of defense, 76ers fans are going to miss Iguadola. I loved his game. The front office HAD to do this trade as soon as they got the call saying they could get Andrew Bynum. But Bynum is already dealing with injuries and seems out of shape. Combine that with his history of missing CHUNKS of games at a time and blatant immaturity, I don't see this team gelling with a nucleus of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner. The advanced statistics back me up on that notion. They have the best center in the Eastern Conference, but I think they finish 4th in the Atlantic Division and sneak out the 6 seed. I'll make it easy: 42-42, a .500 team (assuming Bynum plays 70 games, if he plays 60 I go back to my 35 wins pick). Let this sit in for a while: this is Andrew Bynum's team...
Pick: Under
Toronto Raptors- o/u 33 Wins (-125 on the over) (**UP TO 33.5 WINS**)
There's good reason why this is seeing some action (as noted by the -125 juice). I'm a fan of this over. Interesting team, headed in the right direction.The Atlantic Division is going to make for some GREAT basketball. Losing out Nash (the hometown guy) gives this team a little big of extra motivation in my mind. I think Lowry is better than Nash is. That young, versatile front-line is going to create tough matchups for most teams. Demar Derozen is fun to watch. The Landry Field signings was purely out of spite/a blockade to New York trading for Nash. It backfired in their face that they came away without Nash and their stuck overpaying Fields. But as a Knick fan, I can attest to how scrappy this kid plays. His offensive game has been hard to watch at times; but he's an outstanding rebounder for a wing player (up their with LeBron in that realm) and has a high basketball IQ. 37-45--I think they have a shot at catching Philadelphia for the 4th spot in the Atlantic (meaning they could sneak into the playoffs).
Side Note: Ed Davis over Greg Monroe will haunt this team.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Washington Wizards- o/u 28.5 Wins
This opened in the 32-33 win range (congrats to anyone who got the under on that total). After the recent injuries to John Wall and Nene, also known as the 2 most important players on this roster, it correctly dropped by a few wins. I don't think this team fits well together. I like the collection of young talent and think highly of Bradley Beal; but John Wall has regressed in my eyes and Ariza/Okafor are a waste of space. Not much to say about this team going forward. It looks like an ugly season is on the horizon for Wizards fans.
Pick: Under
Addition by subtraction. They made big headlines dealing Joe Johnson (and his atrocious contract) to Brooklyn. With a healthy Al Horford, and Josh Smith playing for a new contract, I think this team does even better than last season. The loss of Marvin Williams is of no concern, and at worst is an even swap since they got a serviceable Devin Harris in the deal to manage the point alongside Jeff Teague. Danny Ferry deserves a lot of credit for the work he's done this offseason--STEALING Kyle Korver from Chicago and finding a hidden gem in Anthony Morrow. Quite frankly, I think Atlanta's rotation at SG will prove to be statistically more productive than Joe Johnson, for a fraction of the cost. I think this team goes way over and could realistically finish as the 3 seed. They're in the same group as Brooklyn, New York, and Indiana.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Boston Celtics- o/u 50.5 Wins
Getting a healthy Jeff Green back. Adding Jason Terry and Courtney Lee. Drafting Jared Sullinger. Plus a half-decent Darko. The only loss? Ray Allen to Miami. Honestly, Jason Terry > Ray Allen. Plain and simple. KG and Pierce will play less minutes; but the depth on their bench will help keep the vets healthy. This team's MVP is Rondo. It's his team, no questions about it. The one hole is a back up PG, a position Doc Rivers has said will be filled by a committee of capable ball handling SGs. 51-31 I'd go way higher if it wasn't for the fact that Boston will probably be able to rest guys often and secure the #2 seed fairly early. What draws me to the over is that in the likely scenario that another team emerges from the 2nd tier to battle them for the second seed, Boston will have to go all-out down the stretch. In that case, along with the "Ray Allen extra motivation factor" which will give them a few extra wins that they probably don't deserve, the number creeps up to 54. This is the first of my 3 jinxes. I pray this goes under, in the hopes New York makes a play for the division title and a top 4 seed.
Pick: Over
Brooklyn Nets- o/u 44.5 Wins (-130 on the over)
The big move to Brooklyn is finally complete. We saw the fancy new arena and "classy" jersey styles. After acquiring Joe Johnson and resigning Derron Williams, this team really does look like a fantasy team. The biggest issue with this team will be can they stop anybody? Where is the defense going to come from. Brook Lopez is not a force down low. I suppose Gerald Wallace is still an elite defender, but that's about it. As seen by the -130 juice, clearly the public is betting the over. Quite frankly, I think the new city, new arena, new owner, new jerseys, new fan base will all factor together to give Brooklyn a few extra wins. I put this team at around 45 wins though, so it's a close call (and if the public keeps it up we could see this increase to upwards of 45).
Pick: Over
Charlotte Bobcats- o/u 19.5 Wins
In all honestly, I think 19 wins is the exact number. This is a BAD team. They'll be in the hunt for the #1 pick again this season. The only way you could get me to watch the Bobcats play in person is if you promise me a seat next to MJ. Charlotte will somehow manage 12-18 wins, no more.
Pick: Under
Chicago Bulls- o/u 48 Wins
WAY too high. No D.Rose until when? January? February? That's the biggest question mark going into this NBA season. Plus the front office completely destroyed the "bench mob" which will make filling in for Rose even harder. I think they sneak into the playoffs and once they get healthy, no one is going to want to see them in the first round.
Pick: Under (LOCK)
Cleveland Cavaliers- o/u 31.5 Wins
I think Kyrie will be an MVP candidate this season. Unfortunately, I really dislike the selection of Dion Waiters. This team will go as far as Irving can take them. Maybe Varejo can help teach Tristan Thompson mature into what scouts though he could be.
Pick: Over
Detroit Pistons- o/u 32.5 Wins
I think this team gets upwards of 35 wins. I'm a big fan of their young nucleus. They were almost a .500 team in the 2nd half of last season. Detroit only needs to improve by 2 games from last season's pace to get over this total, I definitely think they've gotten at least "2 wins" better.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Indiana Pacers- o/u 50.5 Wins (-130 on the over)
I don't think this team is as good as last year. I think they get to 45-50 wins. Indiana doesn't have a real superstar. Just look at the Atlanta Hawks (who traded away a max. player), they have TWO players better than ANYONE on the Pacers roster.
Pick: Under
Miami Heat- o/u 61.5 Wins
Injuries could obviously derail this number. Another issue could be if they decide to "cruise" through the season (a la San Antonio) and take nights off, knowing they can shift gears in the playoffs. With all that being said, I think this goes over easily. LeBron is embracing playing power forward and Erik Spoelstra is vehement about this "position-less" basketball. It's scary to imagine the possibilities after adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen--2 DEADLY shooters. Throw in a healthy Wade, 65-17 is my guess. You can't predict injuries, and to hit 62-20 you can't have any significant injuries--that's the only thing preventing them from being one of my "locks." As a Knick fan, this is also (hopefully) a jinx. I'd gladly take the hit to my wallet if it means seeing this team fall apart.
Pick: Over
Milwaukee Bucks- o/u 37.5 Wins
I think Ilyasova is a stud. Resigning him was one of the most underrated "moves" of the offseason. 5 years, $40 million? Compare that to Amare Stoudemaire... Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are electric, fun to watch guards; but their lack of defense will be the downfall of this team being anything but average. They have about $20 million coming off the books this summer, not counting Jennings and Ellis who are also in contract years, so it looks like they're rebuilding around Ilyasova and a young group consisting of Tobias Harris, John Henson, and Doron Lamb. I watched Tobias A LOT every since he was a Long Island prodigy from Half Hollow Hills. His size and skills allow him to shift between SF/PF, making him an ideal tweener to play alongside Ilyasova and Henson. Personally, I think they should've drafted Tyler Zeller, a bigger body who can play the center position in a fairly "small" Eastern Conference. I can't really see them attracting big name players, despite their cap room, and wouldn't reccommend giving big money to Jennings or Ellis. Things will get worse before they get better in Milwaukee. I think 37 is the perfect number.
P.S This will be the most I/anyone else writes about Milwaukee until 2013 Mock Drafts start springing up.
Pick: Under
New York Knicks- o/u 46.5 Wins (**DROPPED to 45.5 Wins**)
Can I be unbiased here? To start off, anything less than an ECF appearance will be unacceptable to Dolan and Knicks fans alike. To be honest, I was quite disappointed when we let Lin walk. For a team that's had NO issue throwing around money to guys like Jerome James and Eddy Curry, how do you let Lin walk when you can have him for $5 million a season for the next two years. Worry about the back end of the contract in 2015--when you can use him as a trade chip (or better yet, dangle him to LA for CP3 at the deadline this year) or waive him to spread out the cap hit and avoid luxury tax penalties. Larry Coon did a wonderful job outlining the options back in July. But this rant is better suited for another piece. Now I think Amare's injury will really give us a look at how this team could play with him out of the starting lineup. Throw Carmelo at the 4 against smaller lineups, and Thomas or Camby in there versus bigger teams. I think the starting 5, when at full strength, should be: Felton-Shumpert-Brewer-Melo-Chandler. With J.R Smith as the 6th man, Kidd splitting time at PG, and Amare coming in with the second unit. But bench a guy on a max contract? I guess that's why they pay Mike Woodson the big bucks to make decisions like this. Given the injuries (Shumpert out until January, Amare and Brewer out to start the season) and the unprecedented age of this team, I'll put my fandom aside and be object in saying: under. Not by much though. Like mentioned earlier, I put them in the 2nd tier- Brooklyn, Atlanta, Indiana group. That gives the ability to finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th in the East (and means they will most likely have a 1st round matchup with one of those 3 teams). At worst, a slight improvement in seeding over last year. Everything has to go right for this team to reach 50 wins; and a record that's closer to .500 is more likely. This is another instance where I'd happily trade lossing the money for being wrong on this pick. Again, I'm going for the jinx. 45-37.
Side Note (for Knick fans): If you happen to find a $5 bill on the floor I recommend wagering it on the Knicks at +5000 to win the NBA Championship. Why? For the hell of it. I can't even begin to imagine how gratifying it would be to call the Knicks NBA Champions; but the only thing that could make it better would be realizing I won $250 all because I blindly threw down $5 back in October. Now you'll already have the money set aside to preorder that iPhone 6 coming out in September 2013.
Pick: Under
Orlando Magic- o/u 24.5 Wins
At first glance, it seems a little high. Obviously we all know about the Dwight saga; but what's astonishing is how they didn't get back Gasol or Bynum or even Houston's plethora of picks and young assets. Instead they come away with a trio of rotation/average players. Makes no sense. I even think the Ryan Anderson for Gustavo Ayon is a poor tradeoff. I think they're tanking, BIG time. Any potential impacts guys left on this roster will be dealt to strengthen their fight for the #1 pick. Jameer Nelson is going to be the only guy left, a pretty good player; but he just got paid--Any incentive left to perform? Frankly, it doesn't even matter what he does. Orlando is going to be selling its fans on the 2013 draft (not the best draft class to be tanking for). I think their the worst team in the East. Anywhere from 21-26 wins is where I see this team finishing. For whatever reason, I think their recent trend to screw everything up will continue as the finish towards the bottoms of the standings, rather than right at the bottom. Slightly hurting their lottery odds in the process. The possibility that Glen Davis can have a breakout season makes me less inclined to make the under here a "lock." In fact, I almost talked myself into the over by re-reading the last couple sentences I wrote. I better end this now.
Pick: Under
Philadelphia 76ers- o/u 47 Wins
35-47. I could make a case for that to be Philly's 2012-2013 record. The losses of Lou Williams and Jodie Meeks will be greater than everyone thinks. I don't like the addition of Nick Young, who really just chucks up 3 pointers at a high enough frequency that he's now considered a "scorer" and really doesn't much defense. Speaking of defense, 76ers fans are going to miss Iguadola. I loved his game. The front office HAD to do this trade as soon as they got the call saying they could get Andrew Bynum. But Bynum is already dealing with injuries and seems out of shape. Combine that with his history of missing CHUNKS of games at a time and blatant immaturity, I don't see this team gelling with a nucleus of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner. The advanced statistics back me up on that notion. They have the best center in the Eastern Conference, but I think they finish 4th in the Atlantic Division and sneak out the 6 seed. I'll make it easy: 42-42, a .500 team (assuming Bynum plays 70 games, if he plays 60 I go back to my 35 wins pick). Let this sit in for a while: this is Andrew Bynum's team...
Pick: Under
Toronto Raptors- o/u 33 Wins (-125 on the over) (**UP TO 33.5 WINS**)
There's good reason why this is seeing some action (as noted by the -125 juice). I'm a fan of this over. Interesting team, headed in the right direction.The Atlantic Division is going to make for some GREAT basketball. Losing out Nash (the hometown guy) gives this team a little big of extra motivation in my mind. I think Lowry is better than Nash is. That young, versatile front-line is going to create tough matchups for most teams. Demar Derozen is fun to watch. The Landry Field signings was purely out of spite/a blockade to New York trading for Nash. It backfired in their face that they came away without Nash and their stuck overpaying Fields. But as a Knick fan, I can attest to how scrappy this kid plays. His offensive game has been hard to watch at times; but he's an outstanding rebounder for a wing player (up their with LeBron in that realm) and has a high basketball IQ. 37-45--I think they have a shot at catching Philadelphia for the 4th spot in the Atlantic (meaning they could sneak into the playoffs).
Side Note: Ed Davis over Greg Monroe will haunt this team.
Pick: Over (LOCK)
Washington Wizards- o/u 28.5 Wins
This opened in the 32-33 win range (congrats to anyone who got the under on that total). After the recent injuries to John Wall and Nene, also known as the 2 most important players on this roster, it correctly dropped by a few wins. I don't think this team fits well together. I like the collection of young talent and think highly of Bradley Beal; but John Wall has regressed in my eyes and Ariza/Okafor are a waste of space. Not much to say about this team going forward. It looks like an ugly season is on the horizon for Wizards fans.
Pick: Under
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