The Million Dollar Decision

The Summer of 2010 was filled with rumors about all the big name free agents, and ended auspiciously with the signing of Amar'e Stoudemire. But after the mid-season acquisition of Carmelo Anthony the Knicks are poised for a very bright future. Making the playoffs (and showing positive signs) was a huge step for New York basketball, despite being bounced in the first round by Boston.

For the first time in a decade, the off-season will be about "now", the present, instead of "building for the future". Instead of dumping salaries, New York will look to fine tune their roster for a potential Championship run in 2011-2012. The Knicks have until Friday to either waive Chauncey Billups or pick up the final year of his contract. His team option is set to earn him $14.2 million next season, but only $3.7 million is guaranteed. Waiving him would only cost the team that $3.7 million and allow Chauncey to be an unrestricted free agent.

Obviously $14+ million is an extraordinary price tag for a point guard on the downside of his career. Although he has shown signs of his "Mr. Big Shot" clutch gene, hitting late 3's in the latter part of the season, his lingering injury concerns are cause for worry. The one factor hindering New York from cutting ties with their point guard is the lack of available point guards this summer. Who would replace Chauncey? The options leave much to be desired: Andre Miller, T.J Ford, Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo. Many fans argue to keep Billups for one more season to "bridge the gap" until 2012 (Chris Paul/Derron Williams), but it's blatantly clear that the Knick's biggest hole is at the Center position. Picking up the option on their 34 year old point guard would leave little to no money to throw at a big man, or even add depth to the bench. They could always waive Chauncey and re-sign him after July 1st for less money, if he's willing to take a major pay cut. That would be similar to what the Spurs did with Richard Jefferson last summer. Billups knows he won't make anywhere near $14 million a season on the open market, but with the Knicks financial situation he could definitely find more money somewhere else.

Honestly, unless the Knicks can get Chauncey for $7 mill or under I would be fine with letting him walk. The teams till has Toney Douglas who has really redefined the term "combo guard". Douglas has been an offensive spark plug and the team's best perimeter defender (where Billups was a liability on the defense end), although his performance has been up and down all year. With Amar'e and Carmelo, scoring is not essential for this team's starting point guard so Douglas is capable of taking over the reigns for one season. One of the answers is currently on the roster, Anthony Carter. Sign Carter to a one year deal for around $1 million, he can split time with Douglas and be the back up in 2012. Anthony Carter was, in my opinion, the biggest surprise of the Melo-Trade. Seen as a throw in, Carter was thrown into late game situations and flourished on both ends.

Then use the draft as well as the free agent pool to find one or two "true big men", and possibly even a bargain point guard. Roger Mason, Shelden Williams, Jared Jeffries, and Derrick Brown all come off the books this summer: saving the team around $3.5 million. An intriguing option is Aaron Brooks, a free agent making just $2 million a year. Phoenix will surely part ways with him and if the Knicks could get him cheap then ideally he could run this offense.

There are a couple of big men who New York NEEDS to sign: Alexis Ajinca and Deandre Jordan. Both could be signed to long term deals at an affordable price (less than $2 million a year). Ajinca is only 22 and is 7'2, with a wingspan of 7'9". He doesn't have to score, he just has to get rebounds and block shots. Same with Deandre Jordan, who is a block machine down low. The team would still have $10+ million left to play with, either to get more talent or save for a play at Chris Paul. The only upside to taking Billups' option would be if come February New Orleans makes CP3 available. A trade where New Orleans gets Chauncey (and his would be expiring contract) would match salary-wise. But even without Billups, packaging: draft picks, Fields, Douglas, *the point guard* (say Brooks), and some young guys should be enough for the Hornets--a team in financial disarray looking to salvage something for Chris Paul.

Should Knick Fans Be Optimistic Or Fearful?

Since 2008, Knick fans have dreamed of welcoming LeBron James to the Garden; but as the summer of 2010 passed by, Knick fans agonized at "The Decision", where the Big 3 decided to “take their talents to South Beach”. Knick fans cynically watch with a smile, as the Heat is only a mere one game ahead of the Knicks; both teams are hovering around .500. In hindsight, it's a bittersweet feeling. These same Knicks have shown signs of a bright future on occasion, while also showing signs of a regression to last season's woes.

We have been hearing demands to fire Mike D'Antoni as well as some fans screaming how Amar'e is a bust already. Those two statements, and others like them, are completely outrageous. This roster is filled with new faces and it's going to take time for a group of young guys to develop the necessary chemistry to win in this league. But there are a lot of positive things so far that hint a bright future which is why fans should keep faith and remain optimistic. During their recent 5 game winning streak the team went from 3-8 to a respectable 8-8. Winning those 5 games was no walk in the park as New York had a stretch of 5 games in 7 days, 3 road games on the west coast and a home and away series versus the Bobcats. Regardless of the opponent, winning an away game in the NBA is always a daunting task.

1. Amar'e Stoudemire is worth his max contract and is playing like an MVP caliber player.

22.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, and 2.1 BPG

His assist and block numbers are career highs and his points and rebounds are exactly what we fans expected, All Star and MVP type numbers. Obviously he knows and fits into D'Antoni's system and once the offense begins to click we can expect all of his numbers to increase. Amar'e has played much better basketball than Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer has yet to see the court in a Bulls uniform. The Knicks came away with the best deal when it came to signing a high priced big man.

2. Raymond Felton has been the biggest surprise so far this season for the Knicks and maybe in the entire NBA.

It looks like we finally found our franchise point guard; Raymond Felton is putting up the best stats of his career (career highs in: points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, ft%, 3 pt%, 3 pointers made, and field goal percentage). 18 points, 8 assists, and 2 steals a game is much better than we expected after Felton averaged 12 points and 5.5 assists last season with Charlotte. He has been criticized for his inability to run the pick and roll with Amar'e and for not being a D'Antoni point guard like Steve Nash was for the Suns. But even if that is true, imagine how much better the Knicks and Felton will be once he learns how to play the two-man game with Amar'e. Felton has been a great defender, clutch shooter, and smart leader all season and will continue to flourish in this system. He is getting everybody the ball and making this offense click. We expected Amar'e to fill the stat sheet but Felton is not far behind.

3. Rookie Landry Fields

The starting shooting guard role was the major point of discussion in the off season, Azuibuike was brought in to play that position; but, he is still recovering from injury and is yet to play a game for the Knicks. Roger Mason and Andy Rautins were thought to be perfect for this system where the shooting guard does just that, shoot 3's. But both players are not even in the rotation and have yet to impress the coaching staff. Chandler and Gallo both were mentioned as potential starters but with their size and offense style they both were better suited to play the opposite wing, with Chandler being the 6th man. Both Douglas and Fields impressed fans with their hustle and defense enough to earn consideration for the starting position. But Douglas is still more of a point guard with a shooting guard style of play. Douglas is probably the best perimeter defender on the roster but his combo guard style did not fit the needs at the 2. So as the season began rookie Landry Fields got the nod to be the team's starting shooting guard and has made the most of his opportunity averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds. Fields is the team's second leading rebounder, which is very impressive for a guard. This should not come as much surprise because Landry Fields average 22 points and 9 rebounds last season at Stanford playing on the wing. He almost always the height advantage over his defenders seeing as he is 6'7", which makes rebounding a huge advantage for the team. He makes the hustle plays and is always working hard and getting up and down the court. He is not the conventional shooting guard for D'Antoni's system, but the way he is playing you can't argue he deserves the minutes.

4. Anthony Randolph's Averages Per 48 minutes (11.6 points, 14.3 Rebounds, and 3.18 Blocks)

Anthony Randolph was supposed to be the main piece of the David Lee trade, a player with All Star potential who has been hurt. Fans had high hopes of Randolph have a Gallinari type breakout season but so far he is barely seeing playing time. The first few games he played in a Knick's uniform did not resemble his high flying-highlight reel style we saw in spurts over for the Warriors. But recently he was put in during a blowout and showed signs of a higher basketball IQ, instead of forcing the ball he slowed it down and made smart passes. Although he finished with 0 points and 2 assists, everyone has to be pleased with the improvements in his mental game. Let's hope his erratic play and constant fear of making a mistake is part of his past. Randolph is only 21 and still has that same potential plus he would be a perfect center in D'Antoni's system. He could block shots, rebound, score on the fast break, and be a presence down low on both sides of the ball. The Knicks have already transformed into a high quality defensive unit that can block shots and cause turnovers at will so with the addition of Randolph down low this team could give any offense a hard time.

The future looks bright for the New York Knicks and fans should be optimistic because as the season goes on the wins will start to come in bunches. Amar'e is one of the best players in the NBA, Felton is playing like a top 5 point guard in his first season under MikeD'Antoni, Chandler is the front runner for 6th man of the year award and is playing to impress in hope a new contract, Gallinai is always a threat when he has the ball and is one of the most versatile wing players in the league, and with the vast depth and young talent on this roster we can look forward to a fun season of quality basketball for the first time in this decade.

My Projected New York Knick's Starting Lineup

PG- Raymond Felton- The Knick's signed him to a 3 year deal after LeBron's decision. Felton has averaged about 13 points and 6.5 assists in his first five seasons and never missed more than 4 games in a single reason. He can be a key addition and immediately have an impact as the team's point guard. Felton shot 39% from 3 point range last season and will have a lot of opportunities to shoot the long ball in D'antoni's system. Adding Raymond Felton is a good move because it allows second year PG Toney Douglas to remain in the back up role. Felton adds to a good young core of talent in New York and can spread the ball in this fast paced offense as well as being able to drive and hit 3's when necessary. I love this signing because he is also a above average defender and has always been healthy, some refreshing news for Knick fans. With Chandler slashing to the hoop, Gallo being a matchup nightmare, and Amare down low Felton should be able to rack up the assists. I predict that Felton will average around 13 points and 7-8 assists a game. This is a much needed change as Duhon (a free agent) had seen a sharp decrease in his numbers.

SG- Wilson Chandler- In his fourth season season Chandler is most likely going to be the starting shooting guard on this team. Even though he is 6'8" and listed as a SF he seems to be the only option to fill the need at SG. This will be his first year as a full starter. He has shown he has the ability to get to the hoop and finish strong. Chandler could be a primary scoring option. Last season when T-Mac arrived McGrady was the primary option and took away time from Chandler. None the less Chandler made the most of his chances and will see an increase in shots. Last season he averaged around 15 points and 5.5 rebounds as well as 2 assist. It will be interesting to see how more playing time, shift to SG, and the addition of Amare of other role players will impact his numbers. The wild card in predicting Chandler's stats is Kelenna Azukuike. Azukuike only played nine games games list year but should be healthy for the start of training camp. Azukuike is 6'5" and will most likely be a used as wing player either at the 2 or the 3. I can see a competiton between Azukuike and Chandler for a starting spot but I think Chandler will start off. The shift from playing SF to SG might see a drop in his rebounds but an increase in assist. Wilson definitely needs to work on his 3 point percentage because he will see a lot of looks in this offense. Ultimately I can see that being the reason why Azukuike may move into the starting SG role with Chandler being the 6th man & backup SG/SF.

SF- Danilo Gallinari- In 08-09 (his rookie season) he did not see much playing time and was insignificant. But last season was a breakthrough. His second year in the league out of Italy "Gallo" was one of the few bright spots on the Knicks. He was a fan favorite and a unique player. Gallinari was amongst the league leaders in 3 point shooting and will be used so spread the floor. At 6'10" he almost always will have the height advantage over the opposing SF. He can either stay on the wing knock down shots, post up a smaller defender, or drive to the hoop with his quickness. The pick and roll betwen Gallo and Amare will be deadly and should be the focal point of the Knick's offense. I expect to see increases in his points and rebounds as he matures and improves. He was a lot of potential and can even go down and play the 4 or 5 in a smaller lineup. Look for him to be used on drive and kicks and to work the post. He plays good defense and is very coachable and energetic. Look for him to emerge as the leader of the wing on the Knicks. Azukuike or Chandler can also see some time at SF depending on the type of lineup. Watch out for his rebounding and blocks to sky rocket with his height and leaping ability.

PF- Amar'e Stoudemire- He is the Knick's prize this offseason. The summer of 2010 was supposed to be about LeBron, Wade, or Bosh for the Knicks, unfortunately all three teamed up in Miami. With Joe Johnson, Dirk, Pierce, and Rudy Gay all re signing with there teams the Knicks were lucky to get Amare in the beginning. Teams like the Clippers and Nets are now left with money to spend and no one to give it to. In my opinion Amare was the second best big man in this free agency class. With Bosh leading it, Amare is a better player than Lee and Boozer. This is the first time the Knicks have had an all star that is not out of his prime (or injuried) in a long time. Amare's is seen as a superstar in this league. He won rookie of the year in 2002, is a 5 time all star, and was named to the All NBA second team last season. Upto this point he has spent his entire career with the Suns and has been a major part of some teams. Amare played under D'antoni and knows the system. This is a huge move for the Knicks and gives some hope to the fans. Undoubtedly Amare will be the primary scoring option and leader of this team. He has suffered some injuries to his knee and eye but played and started all 82 games last season. His stats are of course very good and he brings a low post presence to the Knicks that other teams should fear. I think if he stays healthy he can put up numbers as high as 25 points with 10 rebounds. We saw David Lee average 20 and 12 and Lee was a double double machine in New York. I see no reason why Amare cannot grab 10-11 boards in this fast paced offense. He will do a majority of his work down low and also shot some jumpers. With Gallo and Chandler on the wings Amare will have a lot of options and should get a few assist per game.

C- Anthony Randolph- I do not know if Randolph will start off the season in the starting lineup but he should definitely be in it before December. He was one of the players that the Knicks received in the David Lee start this offseason. He is also the most coveted of the three. This kid is full of potential and at 6'10" is extremely athletic. He was injured last year and played sparely in his rookie season but Randolph showed signs of superstar talent at times in those games. If you just look at his stats you may see a nice young big man to come off the bench and play some strong minutes but I see more. I see the potential for a starting center that can score 15 points and grab 8-9 rebounds. Not to mention countless blocks and a major presence down low. I'm basing this on a few highlights of him but we haven't seen him play much at all. If he can develop a mid range jumper then the Knicks have a franchise big man that can be used in many ways. I compare him to a Gerald Wallace or a Lamar Odom with a higher ceiling. A big man that can run up and down the court and be a scoring threat in the open court. I don't see him doing much "back to the basket" work but maybe he can develop that which will turn him into an all star. The move to get Randolph was one that had a purpose to trade Lee who was a free agent in return for something. The other two pieces, Azukuike and Turiaf can be role players off the bench but Randolph has tremendous potential. I can see someone else beginning the season at center. If Randolph stays healthy watch out for him when he Knicks decide to run or as a help defender. Currently his body is not as big as needed and he needs to hit the weight room to be able to go up against some other centers.

Bench:

I see Douglas being the back up PG to Felton (again), Kelenna Azukuike as the 6th man getting a lot of minutes (like chandler), Bill Walker will be a "Nate Robinson" type scoring spark off the bench, Andy Rautins as the sharp shooter (Eddie House last season), and Earl Barron as the back up big men at PF/C. The rotation will include: Felton, Gallo, Amare, Chandler, Randolph, Azukuike, with Barron and Douglas in the mix. It seems as if the Knicks are full of young players but there is not enough room for everyone. Out of the three rookies I think Rautins is the best but can't see him getting much time with all these guards. Landry Fields and Jerome Jordan will most likely sit back and watch for the time being. While Curry and Turiaf are the veterans bigs ready for garbage time.

PG- Felton/Douglas

SG- Chandler/Azukuike/ Walker

SF- Gallo/Azukuike/ Rautins

PF-Amare/Barron

C-Randolph/Turiaf

Curry should be traded by the deadline and rookies Landry Fields and Jerome Jordan are nice pieces for the future.