Catching Lightning In A Bottle





The key for the Chargers in 2011 will be this guy, Vincent Jackson.

   The NFL lockout lasted 132 brutal-days; but personally, I enjoyed the fact that every time I checked my phone today I was bombarded with ESPN alerts about a new recent signing or trade. It actually made me wish for another lockout (but I can wait 10 years). And as a Chargers fan, the day was extra-special.

The "Pre-Free Agency" 2012 Super Bowl Odds pinned the Packers and Patriots as early favorites, both at 7 to 1, following right behind them are my Chargers at 10 to 1 odds. Most online books have taken down these numbers and will repost the updated figures once teams' rosters are more definite. But after just one day of free agency I think San Diego should be the perennial favorites in the NFL, or at least the AFC. New England's RB situation is still murky and the only significant change in there roster is that everyone is one year older.

Last season San Diego had the best overall defense (ranking #1 in defending the pass and #4 against the ground attack); now imagine how dominate they will be after adding inside linebacker Takeo Spikes and veteran safety Bob Sanders. Sanders brings over a lot of honors and achievements, most of which were accumulated during the 2007 season. In 07 he won AP Defensive Player of the Year and earned his second Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections, while capping off the career-year with a Super Bowl ring. But since that season, Sanders has been burdened by injury, only playing 9 games over the last 3 seasons (6 in 2008, 2 in 2009, and 1 last year). If he can return to pre-injury form, it will be tough for teams to throw on the Chargers. Especially since the second half of this duo, Eric Weddle, just inked a brand new $40 million deal ($19 mill guaranteed); keeping him in San Diego for the next 5 seasons. Yes, he now makes more money than Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu combined; but that's how things work in the NFL. Weddle was garnering a lot of interest from the Texans, Jaguars, and Cowboys, which added pressure onto the front office to lock up their secondary. The loss of Cromartie last season was thought to be devastating but Quentin Jammer, and his 10 year-18 interception experience, helped lessen the blow.

Shaun Phillips and Takeo Spikes are absolute monsters in the 3-4 set, let's just hope Larry English can get rid of that "bust" label and actually start contributing. Teams will have to pick their poison when deciding between pass vs. run but I think they'll minimize their risk and chose the latter. But running against Castillo and Cesaire on the ends is like running into a wall, a bad idea. A lot of their core guys on defense are "old" but the team is in win-now-mode, year after year we have seen the Chargers dominate in the regular season (and the stat book) but seem flustered come playoff time. Philip Rivers is a stud at QB, had a MVP-caliber year in 2010 and is only looking to get better. The most exciting thing is now he has a healthy Antonio Gates and (hopefully) Vincent Jackson for a full season, despite the imminent loss of WR Malcom Floyd, I think this #2 rank passing game will be just fine. Looking for the team to work on their one weakness: the run game, where they rank 15th. The maturation of Ryan Matthews and mixing in of the speedy Darren Sproles should be enough to keep defenses honest and allow Rivers to air it out. When it comes down to it: adding veterans means adding experience, so I'll take the tradeoff and worry about rebuilding after we raise the Lombardi Trophy.

Hottest Team in the NFL: San Diego Chargers

Here are some statistics:

1st in passing yards per game

1st in opponents passing yards per game

4th in opponents rushing yards per game

These numbers alone mean the Chargers have the best passing offense, are the best at defending the past, and are the 4th best team at stopping the run. This doesn't even talk about their rushing attack, which when healthy includes Ryan Matthews, Mike Tolbert, and Darren Sproles. Philip Rivers is the offense MVP this season and isn't even getting the credit he deserves. Rivers is leading the NFL's best passing attack led by TE Antonio Gates and WR Malcom Floyd. In addition the list of weapons is endless. Rivers is throwing to receivers like Buster Davis, Patrick Crayton, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Legedu Naanee. Randy McMichael did a great job filling in for Gates and will be a valuable #2 TE. What is hard to believe is the Chargers and their #1 passing attack is without star WR Vincent Jackson who returns this week against the Colts. With Jackson on Floyd on each side, Gates in the middle, and Sproles out of the backfield defense will need to pick their poison with this offense. Injuries won't even stop this team as players like Crayton, Ajirotutu, and McMichael have proven they can produce when called upon. This rushing offense has been average (ranked 17th) but star rookied RB Ryan Matthews has been injuried but showed signs of making San Diego fans forget about LT. Matthews can be the teams go-to running back with his speed and power. Tolbert has filled in wonderfully and can use his big body to be the 3rd down and goaline back. Sproles cannot be contained on screens and seemingly breaks off at least 1 huge run per game on his speed alone. The Chargers offense is filled with weapons and maintained success behind a strong veteran offensive line. Lineback Stephen Cooper, Shaun Phillips, and Kevin Burnett are racking up the numbers this year in tackles and haven't missed a beat without Pro-Bowler Shawne Merriman. Second year OLB Larry English will also offer containment when he remains healthy and establishes his position down the road and in the playoffs. This secondary is manning the best pass defense in the NFL. Jammer, Gregory, Weddle, and Cason don't give up the big plays and have the ability to take risks knowing their linebacks and D-Line can pressure the opposing QB. After the Colts game their schedule gets pretty easy so they could finish 11-5 on a 9 game winning streak entering the playoffs. We have seen in recent weeks the Jets need luck and big plays to pull out wins and the Patriots have holes in their defense and a sketchy running game. The Colts can't stay healthy leaving Manning with few options. The AFC is strong but most of the elite teams have holes that are drawing huge criticism. The statistics and talent shows it: The San Diego Chargers are the best team in the AFC.

Fantasy Playoffs and Trade Deadline

Sell High:

QB: Mike Vick- He is posting ridiculous numbers but it is hard to believe he will replicate these numbers throughout the fantasy playoffs. He will be great no doubt but if you have another elite quarterback like Tom Brady or Philip Rivers than trade Vick for an elite RB or WR to fill a weakness and add balance.

RB: Arian Foster and Ryan Torian- Injuries, bad teams, meaningless game all of these factors could impact these guys numbers. Like Vick, sell Foster at his peak value when you could get RB of equal value and a solid RB2 or WR1/WR2. Torian is hurt and the Redskins have about 8 other RBs but if you could unload Torian to someone who is just looking at his stats then go for it. Torain will be riding everyones bench the rest of the season, including the Redskins. Keiland Williams (available in most leagues will be a solid flex play or RB2 in deep leagues for the rest of these season)

WR: Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant- All of these guys have had up and down seasons and Marshall has seemingly forgotten where the end zone even is. But Harvin and Dez have fought to put up some huge games at times but have also been killers for some owners. The risk is not worth starting them on a week to week basis. Dez was a huge fantasy dud this week against the Saints which could cost owners a playoff spot, Kitna is no Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense is risk/reward each week. Harvin lives and dies by Favre which at this point is not a safe risk. Trade both of these guys for safer options while their value is still high due to some huge fantasy weeks. Marshall has been a consistent player and put up solid scoring outputs all season with only one touchdown. But with Tyler Thigpen (3rd string QB) starting and spreading the ball around to everyone on the field Marshall's yardage will decrease and he already is rarely targeted in the red zone. He will be a WR3 or flex play at best for the remainder of the season.

TE: Antonio Gates- Injuries have killed owners the past few weeks and this season TEs are coming out of nowhere and putting up huge games. Gate was the fantasy MVP a few weeks ago and trade him now while he is still hot for a top 10 TE and WR2. Marcedes Lewis is guy I like going forward to lead the NFL in TDs for tight ends as he is Garrard's favorite red zone target. And when it comes to TEs touchdowns are the smarter way to go than yards.