Saturday, February 19, 2011

Will Albert Walk? The End Of An Era In St. Louis

The deadline for Albert Pujols' contract talks has passed and the two sides have yet to come to an agreement. None the less, there is still no indication that Pujols will lift that deadline to discuss his contract at any point during the season. Sports Illustrated reported that the Cardinals had offered the 3-time MVP an eight contract worth over $200 million but Albert was seeking a ten year deal worth $300 million. A deal of that magnitude would make Pujols the highest paid player in league history, both on a per year basis as well as total salary, surpassing Alex Rodriguez's 10-year $275 million deal with the Yankees

Signing a player for ten years and investing $300 million for that one guy is absurd, even if he is the best player in the league. Pujols feels he deserves more money than Ryan Howard, who just signed a 5-year $125 million contract ($25 mill a year) with the Phillies, and in reality he does because Pujols is a much better player than Howard. But no player is worth $300 million, no matter how great he is and no matter how many records he is going to break. The smart move for the Cardinals would be to let Albert walk when the time comes, unless he is willing to give St. Louis a very large home-town discount.

I bet the Yankees are looking at Alex's contract and regretting how much money the invested, especially since they will be still be paying A-Rod $27.5 million when he is 42 years old. Albert is currently 31 years old and would also be 40+ years old at the end of a potential ten-year contract. Although the Yankees can afford to pay any amount of money they know the last four years of that contract will be absolutely brutal to look at. There is no doubt that Alex Rodriguez will be out of his prime and on the back end of his career when he his current ten year deal expires in 2017. We need to remember how Alex Rodriguez ended up in New York, Texas could not afford to pay Alex and did not want to take on such a big investment. Of course Albert will not end up with the Yankees but there are other teams who have the financial ability to pay Pujols, like Chicago, Los Angeles, and even the Mets.

The Yankees are worth over a billion dollars and bring in $441 million worth of revenue each year. In comparison, the Cardinals are only worth $488 million total and bring in $195 million a season. Those numbers show that the Yankees make almost as much money per year as the entire Cardinal franchise is worth ($441 mill vs. $488 mill). So relatively speaking, paying Albert $30 million a year would take up 15% of the Cardinal's revenue, while the Yankees only use 6% of their annual revenue to pay Alex Rodriguez. The Cardinals cannot pretend that they are a "big market" team like the Yankees or Red Sox. Again, relatively a team like the Yankees can "afford" to pay players $20-$30 million a year because their payroll is almost 50% higher than teams like the Cardinals (Yankees=$194 million payroll, Cardinals= $100 million payroll).

In addition the Cardinals re-signed outfielder Matt Holliday to a seven-year $120 million dollar contract, the richest contract in the illustrious history of the St. Louis Cardinals, and would be devoting almost 50% of their payroll on only two players. It is unclear why the Cardinals decided to lock up Holliday before Pujols but the Cardinals cannot field well rounded team with only $54 million dollar left to spend, that would only be $2.34 million per player. In 2010 Matt Holliday put up .312 BA, 28 HR, and 103 RBIs and the Cardinals would be able to add two players of similar caliber rather than spend on $30 million on Albert (.312 BA, 42 HR, and 118 RBIs). Another problem is that other current players will be free agents in the upcoming years and undoubtedly seek more than $2.34 million. These players include Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Chris Carpenter. Locking up their pitching staff and adding two or three solid hitters would better for the franchise long term.

The Cardinals have always been known for developing young talent out of their farm system with smart coaches like Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan. But the Cardinal's farm system only ranks 17th in the league, with only two prospects in the top 100. This shows how the team cannot solely depend on their young players and will need to acquire talent through free agency. Albert is the face of the franchise, and the face of St. Louis, but the Cardinals are already very hyped and proven to be a winning team, whether Pujols stays or goes they have already tapped out the market to its fullest extend. The Yankees have the highest pay roll in all of sports but they still don't win year after year. Teams like the Padres and Giants are winning games based on good pitching and by playing "money ball".

The usual big spenders have no need at first base. The team that spends the most money out of anyone, the Yankees, locked up Mark Texiera for 8 years and $180 million back in 2008. The Phillies just signed Ryan Howard for the next 5 seasons at $25 a year. And in all likelihood the Red Sox will retain newly acquired first baseman Adrien Gonzalez for $20+ million a year in a long-term contract. Those are the top 3 spenders in the MLB and other teams like the Mets are in very bad financial situations. The potential suiters would be either of the Chicago teams or LA teams but those clubs also have big name guys to pay.

In the end the Cardinals need to think about their long-term financial situation. 10 years at $30 million dollars would be a constraint on this franchise for generations. What if Albert gets hurt? What if his production drops after 3 or 4 seasons? What if steroid allegations come out? These are all things we have seen happen to super star athletes in the blink of an eye. Will any team be willing to pay that high price? Would they be bidding against themselves? Players like Albert Pujols come along once in a lifetime but St. Louis needs to start considering life after Albert as a realistic possibility.


Here are some examples of what $30 million could buy you in the MLB...

1. Prince Fielder ($15 mill) and Justin Morneau ($13 mill)
2. Jake Peavy ($17 mill) and Chris Carpenter ($13 mill)
3. Joey Votto ($12 mill), Dustin Pedroia ($7 mill), and Hanley Ramirez ($11 mill)
4. Josh Hamilton ($12 mill), Carlos Gonzalez ($11 mill), and Hunter Pence ($7 mill)
5. In 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2007 the entire Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray's pay roll was under $30 million dollars
6. The entire 2011 Tampa Bay Ray's starting lineup
7. The entire 2011 San Diego Padres roster (all major league level contracts minus signing bonuses)
8. The entire 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates roster (all major league level contracts minus signing bonuses)
9. The 2001 Oakland Athletics roster (who went 102-60 and made it to the ALDS)
10. Babe Ruth's highest year salary 400 times






Sunday, February 13, 2011

College Basketball's Race To The Top

On Saturday afternoon Ohio State lost their first game of the season. Wisconsin welcomed the Buckeyes into Madison and stormed the court after knocking off the number one team in the country. This leaves the us without a single undefeated team, and without a consensus number one overall team. Who should be number one? Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh, and Ohio St are all viable candidates

Ohio State (24-1, 11-1 Big Ten): The Buckeyes first and only loss of the season came yesterday, a 71-67 road battle against fourteenth ranked Wisconsin. The Big 10 is loaded with talented teams and outstanding players, which makes Ohio State's resume even better. Four teams are currently ranked in the AP Top 25: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. In addition Illinois, who has been in and out of the rankings, will certainly re-enter this week. Teams such as Penn State, Michigan, Northwestern, and Indiana have been putting up fights night in and night out. Plus, who could forget Michigan State (preseason top 5) sitting in the middle of the pack, waiting to make its March run. Ohio State was 5-0 against the top 25 coming into this weekend and faces off against rival Michigan State on Tuesday. The newly crowned numbered one has a very good chance of maintaining it's position. A loss to #14 Wisconsin on the road is very respectable. Jared Sullinger, along with seniors Jon Diebler and David Lighty, will lead this team deep into the bracket.

Kansas (22-1, 9-1 Big 12): After a crazy week in a college basketball, where we saw almost all of the top 15 teams lose, Kansas moved up the ladder into the number two slot. Kansas is the most efficient team in the country: 1st in field goal percentage (.523), 2nd in assists per game (18.6), and 6th in points per game (83.9). The Jayhawks have done all of this without their best offensive player, Josh Selby. The freshman missed the first three games for Kansas and has sat out the last nine, but Kansas is still 12-0 without Selby. Seniors Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed, and Mario Little have provided experience and leadership all year long. In addition Kansas is stacked with future NBA stars, juniors: Tyshaun Taylor, Markieef Morris, and Marcus Morris are all seeing their draft stock sky rocket. Their only loss came back on January 22nd against Texas, who is currently ranked one slot behind Kansas at number three. But Kansas has only beaten one top 25 team: #20 Missouri by 17. The Jayhawks did win against Memphis (ranked 14) by thirteen back on December 7th but Memphis is now out of the top 25 (19-7, 7-3 C USA). The Big 12 conference is very top-loaded, but the bottom half of the teams are very mediocre and not seen as quality victories. Like Ohio State, Kansas has only one loss, and the Jayhawk's loss came to a tougher opponent (#3 Texas) as opposed to Ohio State's loss (#14 Wisconsin). But the Buckeyes have beaten five ranked teams, four more than Kansas, and the Big 10 is a more talented conference than the Big 12.

Texas (22-3, 10-0 Big 12): People may wonder how Texas is in the conversation for the number one rank with three losses, and in all likelihood they probably won't move up the ladder this week, but few people will argue with the fact that Texas is an elite team. In my opinion the Longhorns are the best team in the country and their early losses will only help them come tournament time. Texas has had the hardest schedule of any team, playing nine teams currently in the AP top 25. They are 7-2 in those games, and their two losses were by a combined three points. Texas went on the road and knocked off Kansas by nine, won against Missouri by 13, and beat Texas A&M twice by twenty each time. Their first loss of the season came against #4 Pittsburgh, 66-68 where Ashton Gibbs scored 19 of his 24 points in the second half to lead the Pitt Panthers. Then early in 2011 the Connecticut knocked off Texas on a Kemba Walker game winning shot in overtime, a heart breaking loss for Longhorn fans. And their third loss was to USC, a 17 point defeat where Jordan Hamilton was held to 12 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Nikola Vucevic had a career game for USC, scoring a career high 24 points. The most impressive parts of Texas' resume is their perfect in conference record, and strength of schedule. The Longhorns rank 6th in the nation with 41 rebounds a game. In all likelihood we will see teams like Ohio State, Kansas, and Pittsburgh accumulate more losses as their schedules get more difficult and towards the end of conference play. The loss to USC is a big blemish on their record but both Pitt and Uconn will finish the season in the top 10 and Texas deserves consideration for the number one seed.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Kobe vs. Michael: The End All Debate

On Friday Kobe played his 1,072nd career game against the New Orleans Hornets. Michael Jordan finished his career with 1,072 career games over 15 different seasons (19 year span due to retirements).

Games Played- Bryant: Since Kobe is just 32 and has never retired he will still have time to continue his career and accumulate more stats, wins, and rings. Michael career took place from the ages of 21 to 40 while Kobe has been in the league since he was 18, straight of out high school.

Games Started- Jordan: MJ began his career as a starter is rookie year, and finally retired a 40 year old starter for the Wizards. Out of his 1,072 games Jordan started all but 33 of them (97%) while Kobe has started 924 (86%)

Minutes Played- Jordan: Michael has played over 1,000 more minutes over the same number of games and his average of 38.3 minutes per game is higher than Kobe's average of 36.5. Michael had seen playing time regardless of age, over 3,000 minutes as a rookie and over 3,000 minutes at the age of 40. While Kobe only averaged 15 minutes per game as a rookie but now averages around 34.

Field Goals- Jordan: Jordan's numbers are in higher volume: Michael made 12, 192 shots (11.4 per game) while Kobe made 9,432 shots (8.8 per game), Jordan took 24,537 shots (22.9 per game) as opposed to Kobe's 20,728 shots (19.3 per game).

Free Throws- Jordan: MJ made more free throws and was sent to the line more often; ordan made 7,327 free throws (6.8 per game) to Bryant's 6,859 free throws made (6.4 per game). In regards to attempts Michael took 8,772 free throws (8.2 per game) while Kobe attempted 8,190 free throws (7.6 per game). There free throw percentages are almost identical 85.5 and 85.7, with Kobe beating out Michael by 0.2 percent. Overall the edge goes to MJ since they shot the same percentage but Michael was at the line more frequently.

Three Pointers- Bryant: Kobe runs away in this category making 1,370 three-pointers (1.3 per game), more than doubling Michael's 581 three-pointers (0.5 per game). Of course Kobe also took a ton more shots from behind the arc: 4,041 three-pointers (3.8 per game) as compared to MJ's 1,778 three-pointers (1.7 per game). But despite the huge gap in numbers Kobe only topped Michael by 1.2 percent (33.9% vs. 32.7 for MJ). Kobe's huge advantage is lessened by the fact that Michael was almost equally as effective form behind the arch but just took less long range shots.

Rebounding- Jordan: Although Kobe is taller than Michael (only slightly) Michael grabbed 1,668 offensive rebounds (1.6 per game) to Kobe's 1,266 offensive rebounds (1.2 per game). On the other end MJ had 5,004 defensive rebounds (4.7 per game) while Kobe brought in 4,406 defensive rebounds (4.1 per game). None the less both players have great numbers for shooting guards. After 1,072 career games, Kobe grabbed 5,672 total rebounds (5.3 per game), much less than Michael who grabbed 6,672 total rebounds (6.2 per game). In the exact same number of games Michael Jordan has exactly 1,000 more rebounds than Kobe.

Assists- Jordan: Michael once averaged 8 dimes a game back in the 88-89 season (along with 8 boards), one of the most impressive single seasons of all time. Jordan dished off for 5,633 assists (5.3 per game) in his career while Kobe has accumulated 5,020 assists (4.7 per game).

Steals- Jordan: No doubt MJ wins in this category, he's one of the greatest perimeter defenders in NBA history. Jordan lead the league in steals three times. He has 2,514 steals (2.3 per game) versus Kobe who has 1,617 steals (1.5 per game) thus far.

Blocks- Jordan: Again Jordan runs away in this category, Michael still holds the record for most all time blocks by a guard, 893 shots (0.8 per game). Kobe has a blocked a respectable 569 shots (0.5 per game).

Turnovers- Jordan: Bryant turned the ball over 3,133 times (2.9 per game), while Jordan turned the ball over 2,924 times (2.7 per game). Turning the ball over leads to the other team's points. Both players did it a lot, but Jordan did it less often.

Fouls- Jordan: In 1,072 Jordan committed 39 less fouls, an outstanding fact considering how he had so many more steals and blocks. Despite Jordan's tough defense and agressiveness he managed to play smart and commit less career fouls, 2,783, than Kobe: 2,822.

Total Points- Jordan: We all know Kobe has been making headlines climbing the all-time scoring list, passing Hall of Famers, but through an the same number of games MJ has over 5,000 more points: 32,292 aagaint Kobe's 27,093. MJ averaged a mind-blogging 30.1 points per game ranging over a long 15 season, 19 year career, which did not end until he was 40 years old. Kobe boosts a career average of 25.3 points per game, a number that has been increasing ever since his playing time has. Kobe's 15 minutes per game at 18 years old limited his numbers.

OVERALL/WINNING- MICHAEL JORDAN:

Michael Jordan is the great player to walk the planet and everyone loves to debate "Kobe vs. Michael" but the numbers don't lie, there is no debate. Michael Jordan scored more points, shot more efficiently from the field and from the line, grabbed more rebounds on both ends on the floor, was a better defender, committed less fouls, and turned the ball over less frequently than Kobe. The only category Kobe came out in top in was three point shooting, but really it goes down as a tie. This is because Michael only shot 1.2 percent less form behind the arch than Kobe, so many Kobe should be taking less threes than he has been.

Michael is 6-0 in the NBA Finals and came out the Finals MVP in each of the 6 series. Kobe is 5 for 7 in his finals appearances and only won 2 MVPS out of those 5 wins. MJ: 100% in the finals, won 100% of the MVPs. Kobe: 70% in the finals, winning the MVP only 2 out 5 times (40%).




Some Information Extracted From: Zachmo Marsupalami (Contributor)

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Karma is a Bitch

The Cleveland Cavaliers have tied the record for most consecutive loses in one season with 23. They have also dropped 24 road games in a row. This is easily the worst season the Cavs have had in over thirty years. But the sad part is that Cleveland is even worse than their 8-41 record can show. The Cavaliers have not a single game in 2011, their last win came at home against the Knicks 49 days ago, back on December 18th. The Knicks couldn't pull away despite multiple runs and New York let Cleveland steal an overtime victory. Prior to that game the Cavs had lost 10 in a row, meaning that in their last 34 games Cleveland is 1-33 (that one win being a lucky overtime victory). Theoretically this historic losing streak could and should be at 34, rather than 23.

Cleveland started off this season hovering around .500, 7-10 after 17 games. But discluding the game against New York, the Cavaliers haven't won a game since Thanksgiving (Nov 27 vs. Memphis). Their eight wins break down into: New York (1), Memphis (1), Milwaukee (1), Philadelphia (2), Washington (1), New Jersey (1), and Boston (1).

There first win came in their first regular season game, their first game without LeBron. It came versus the Boston Celtics. Maybe it was the underdog mentality or the hatred for LeBron but Cleveland came out to beat Boston by 8 (95-87) after outscoring the Celtics 27-14 in the fourth quarter. The "Big 3" shot a combined 12 for 33 from the field (36%) and 1-7 from behind the arch (14%). Everyone on Cleveland seemed to have a great game and their season looked bright despite the loss of LeBron.


Thursday, January 27, 2011

What If Chris Duhon Was Still Running The Knick's Offense?

On July 20th 2010 the New York Knicks signed Raymond Felton a two-year contract worth $15.8 million dollars. This move was overshadowed by New York's signing of Amar'e Stoudemire and also by the New Big 3 in Miami. But thus far Felton is easily the biggest bargain of the offseason. New York has been one of the most improved teams in 2010-2011 and the fans have been praising Stat as their savior. But the MVP candidate doesn't deserve all the credit for turning around the Knicks.

Raymond Felton is becoming a household name and is deserving of an All-Star spot on the Eastern Conference roster. Felton ranks 5th in the entire NBA in Total Assists and is running the league's best offense. Amar'e is also having the best season of his career but you need to consider who he's replacing, David Lee. Amar'e is averaging 26.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg, and 2.7 apg this season while David Lee averaged 20.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, and 3.6 apg last year. If you add those three statistics up for each player you see Amar'e is only an improvement of "1.5". But on the other hand, look at the point guard play: Raymond Felton's numbers include 17.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, and 8.9 apg while Duhon only put up 7.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, and 5.6 apg (not to mention he has had absolutely no impact this season for the Magic). Felton has contributed an outstanding "14.8" improvement when you tally up those three statistics for each player. Clearly Stoudemire is the better player but which pair would be better: Duhon and Amar'e or Felton and DLee. Amar'e brings energy, the intangibles, and star-power to New York and there is no way to gage the impact his presence alone has had. But looking purely at the numbers of each guy, and who he replaced, it is clear that the Knicks would be in much worse shape if they hadn't signed Raymond Felton and Chris Duhon was still running the team.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Russia Can't Compete With New York

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nba/news/story?id=6038636

"I'm not happy with the way ... this deal has gone until now," Prokhorov said. "It has taken too long. It has been played out in public and it certainly has taken a toll on the players and I believe that it has cost us several games. I think management did a great job, but there comes a time when the price is simply too expensive. I'm instructing our team to walk away from the deal."

Those are the words of New Jersey Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov. Prokhorov said he never heard from Anthony. "Maybe he sent me an e-mail, but I don't have a computer," Prokhorov said. "Maybe the carrier pigeon got lost." Frustration has clearly set in as any chance of Carmelo coming to New Jersey has disappeared. During these long trade talks team morale was extremely low causing many disappointing performances. New Jersey's offer was centered around rookie forward Derrick Favors and multiple first round draft picks but the hard part was persuading Carmelo to commit to the Nets.

General manager Billy King expressed Prokhorov's role in these discussions and credited him with making this decision. It seems as if the Nets are going to shift their focus to rebuilding the team in other ways, including; draft picks, smaller trades, and other free agents. New Jersey has a solid core group consisting of Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and Brook Lopez which could be the nucleus of exciting young team.

The most important effect this decision will have is in regards to the New York Knicks. Anthony has been linked to New York ever since his wedding and Chris Paul's infamous toast. Some reports have gone as far as saying Carmelo Anthony will only sign an extension if he is traded to the Knicks. New York has already hit the jackpot with one move, signing Amar'e Stoudemire to a max contract in July. In addition Raymond Felton has also proved he is worth every penny of his new contract.

Donnie Walsh should start increasing the pressure on the Nugget's front office to make a move now. A deal including Eddy Curry and Wilson Chandler would be most ideal because both of these players are free agents whose salaries come off the book this summer. These guys salaries match Carmelo's which allows the deal to work under NBA rules. At the same time New York retains its young core (Danilo Gallinari and Landry Fields) while also maintaining their trade flexibility by keeping Anthony Randolph as an asset for the future. The new starting five would be Felton-Fields-Anthony-Stoudemire-Turiaf, with Gallinari coming off the bench as the 6th man (taking over Chandler's role). This will allow for Gallo to be the leader of the second unit where he can blossom as the first option and a spot up shooter. Danilo can come in and play the 2, 3, or 4 depending on various matchups which will give D'Antoni even greater flexibility when giving his starters rest. Shawn Williams and Bill Walker will continue to be important spark plugs off the bench and Douglas will remain the back up point guard that locks down opposing perimeter players.

This trade swaps Eddy Curry and Wilson Chandler for Carmelo Anthony. In reality this deal is even better than it looks on paper. Eddy Curry has been irrelevant the past two seasons and will be on the bench either way. In Chandler's case he is a similar player to Carmelo so they would not be able to easily work together or ever be on the floor at the same time. It is better to keep Gallinari who has unlimited potential to develop into a smaller version of Dirk Nowitzki. Not to mention that Chandler is a free agent as well after this season and will presumably desire a large contract which the Knicks won't be able to afford.

This potential roster would easily be one of the best in the East because the Knicks are already the top scoring team in the league so imagine what could happen if they add another All-Star scorer. Carmelo brings the intangibles that are necessary to win, especially on a young team. In Denver he lead the Nuggets to multiple playoff appearances and even a trip to the Conference Finals. Also, Anthony was a part of the National Championship Team at Syracuse in 2003 and won a Gold Metal for USA in the Olympics. Miami has their new "Big 3" and everyone knows about the Celtics "Big 4" but a duo of Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire paired with Raymond Felton and Danilo Gallinari would immediately join that elite group, even without CP3.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

2011- The Year Of Love

Everyone knows LeBron James and Kobe Bryant will continue to rule the NBA hierarchy but throughout the first few months of the 2010-2011 season fans have seen some players begin to blossom. Who will to continue to breakout? and Who is going to fall back to reality?



Kevin Love- Right now Kevin Love is leading the league in rebounds by a wide margin and is cementing his place among the elite big men. Kevin Love has always been recognized as a solid player but he has never been mentioned in that "superstar" category. So far this season Love has proved he wants to be in recognized in that upper echelon of talent, and he certainly deserves to be. He is averaging 20.8 points and 15.5 rebounds per game, last season he averaged 14 and 11 but was seemingly overshadowed by the presence of Al Jefferson. With Jefferson's departure to Utah, Kurt Rambis has designated Love as the go-to-guy for this young team. The Timberwolves are filled with raw-youthful talent such as: Jonny Flynn, Wes Johnson, Ricky Rubio, Darko Milicic, and Michael Beasley. Injuries and inexperience have set Minnesota back a few years but despite their rebuilding process, the team is getting a high level of production from their third year big man. His most impressive performance came against the Knicks back on November 12th where he dropped 31 points to go along 31 rebounds. This was the first 30-30 game in NBA history since Moses Malone. That was the first of four 30+ point performances for Love, including a career-high 43. Kevin Love's game exists away from the basket as well; he is a versatile offensive weapon. In eleven games this season Love has made multiple 3-pointers and has had two nights in December where he shot a perfect 5 for 5 from behind the arc. He shoots 45 percent from the field, 43 percent from the 3 point line, and 88 percent on free throws, proving he puts up high scoring numbers at an efficient rate. In the NBA, efficiency is what separates the league's stars from the rest of the field. Love will make a major push for an All-Star spot in the west and definitely deserves consideration as a backup forward. The starting front court will include Durant, Gasol, and Nowitzki but look for Love to be in contention as well, along with guys like Rudy Gay, David West, Tim Duncan, and Carmelo Anthony.