Looking Ahead: Beating the Beasts of the East

David and Goliath: MLB Edition

Before the 2011 season even started, everyone knew the AL and NL East was already decided. The Yankees or Red Sox would take the division title (with the "loser" grabbing a Wild Card spot) and the only question in the National League East was how early into the season the Phillies clinched. The Central and West divisions in both leagues are fairly open and each has two or three teams, "equal" in ability, fighting for the spot atop their respective division. Teams like Baltimore, Toronto, and Atlanta would seeminly thrive if they could get out of the East, although the Phillies dyntasy is only a recent creation, the Yankees and Red Sox have dominated the AL East (with minimal distractions from the Rays) for three decades. If you combine the rosters of New York (Yankees), Boston, and Philly you pretty much have 2 full All-Star teams, including pitching staffs and bullpen. Sadly (as a die hard Yankee fan), I think these 3 teams are going to be making some noise the next couple seasons; and we could even see a newly crowned divison leader sooner rather than later.

 

Baltimore, the worst team (record-wise) in the American League, has a lot more talent than their record reveals. Buck Showalter took over this team last season and really seemed to influence the chemistry in the locker room and raise the team morale, but that rejuvination seemed to desipate as the wear-and-tear of the 2011 season began to surface. There has been a tougher division, past or present, than the AL East since the turn of the milenium, dominated by the high salary caps' of Boston and New York. The Orioles have a ridiculously good young hitting core though. Matt Weiters was an All-Star this year behind the plate and may finally begin to show signs that he can live up to all the hype that surrounded him as a top prospect. The team has a good model in place, as they are building the roster up the middle (Catcher- Middle Infield-CF). A few weeks ago, on July 18th, Baltimore locked up J.J Hardy to a 3 year extension (worth $22.5 million) and back in 2009 the front office was able to also extend Brian Robert's contract (4 years, $40 million). Although the team recently shifted Roberts to the 60-day DL, he still started of 2011 with a hot bat and great speed. Hopefully the second baseman can finally rid himself of this injury bug and return to his All-Star form. With Hardy at short and Roberts at second the middle infield will be one of the best up and coming duos in the entire league, a tandum with great speed, range on defense, and rare power for their respective positions. The last piece is in center field, Adam Jones (who came over from Seattle back in 08 during the Erik Bedard trade), is arbitration eligible in 2012-2013. Right now he is only making $3.5 million and that number will surely go up if he hits the open market, so it's important for Baltimore to keep him happy and willing to commit to staying with the Orioles. Jones has the ability to bat in the leadoff spot or also be a threat in the middle of the lineup; I think the Orioles, with their young core, are going to go with a speed over power mentality, meaning Hardy/Roberts will bat 1 and 2 (in either order) with Jones 3rd. I like moving Mark Reynolds to first base and due to his high strike out rate I would bat him 6th, a postion where RBIs will be plentiful but the K's wil be less costly. The young stud Matt Weiters can hold down the 5th spot, taking pressure off Reynolds and racking up the RBIs. Nick Markakis, the teams best hitter and sole veteran, should bat clean up and can have a MVP-type season if the top of the order stays healthy and matures. Felix Pie may not be in the team's plans long term but with Luke Scott on the DL I think they should start Pie in the "Brett Gardner role" (a true CF bringing his speed and skill set to LF, and batting 9th as a "second lead off man"). Pie 9th will be a tough out and if he can work out his personal issues and cool down the attitue maybe the Orioles can commit to him for the future. All that is left in terms of batting is the 7 and 8 hole (manned by the team's DH and 3B). I would let the young Blake Davis try and hold his own at 3rd, even though he's a short stop and move Nate Reimold to a platoon at DH until Vlad is a free agent in 2012. Unless the team finds a very attractive trade offer or free agent, this looks like the future batting order; rotate around Pie (LF/DH), Reimold (LF/DH), Reynolds (1B, DH, 3B), and Blake Davis (3B) to find a combination that works and allows eahc guy to mature into his own role. With the trade of Derrek Lee ($7.25 million) and expiring contracts of Vladimir Guerrero ($8 million) and Luke Scott ($6.4 million); the Orioles will have a combined $22 million off the books just from those 3 guys, enough to go out and spend on a veteran bat to be everyday guy at LF or 3B. In terms of the pitching staff: Mike Gonzalez ($6 million) and Jeremy Guthrie ($5.75 million) are the two biggest names off the book (adding $12 million the $22 million previously noted, totaling $34 million of cap space from 5 "dispensile" free agents to-be). Potential FA targets at SP include: Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Hiroki Kuroda, Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Aaron Harang, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Oliver Perez, Brad Penny, and even Roy Oswalt. For a complete list of all 2012 free agents, click here: MLB Contracts. If they can snag one or two veteran pitchers on the cheaper end that could really improve this roster until their pitching prosects develop. Zach Britton can be a solid middle of the rotation guy, and they should look to re-sign their "ace" Jeremy Guthrie. Combining this with the potential signings of Hideki Matsui at DH, Ryan Ludwick or Raul Ibanez in LF, and Eric Chavez or Aramis Ramirez at 3B would really firm up their chances of knocking off the mighty Yankees and Red Sox.

Catching Lightning In A Bottle





The key for the Chargers in 2011 will be this guy, Vincent Jackson.

   The NFL lockout lasted 132 brutal-days; but personally, I enjoyed the fact that every time I checked my phone today I was bombarded with ESPN alerts about a new recent signing or trade. It actually made me wish for another lockout (but I can wait 10 years). And as a Chargers fan, the day was extra-special.

The "Pre-Free Agency" 2012 Super Bowl Odds pinned the Packers and Patriots as early favorites, both at 7 to 1, following right behind them are my Chargers at 10 to 1 odds. Most online books have taken down these numbers and will repost the updated figures once teams' rosters are more definite. But after just one day of free agency I think San Diego should be the perennial favorites in the NFL, or at least the AFC. New England's RB situation is still murky and the only significant change in there roster is that everyone is one year older.

Last season San Diego had the best overall defense (ranking #1 in defending the pass and #4 against the ground attack); now imagine how dominate they will be after adding inside linebacker Takeo Spikes and veteran safety Bob Sanders. Sanders brings over a lot of honors and achievements, most of which were accumulated during the 2007 season. In 07 he won AP Defensive Player of the Year and earned his second Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections, while capping off the career-year with a Super Bowl ring. But since that season, Sanders has been burdened by injury, only playing 9 games over the last 3 seasons (6 in 2008, 2 in 2009, and 1 last year). If he can return to pre-injury form, it will be tough for teams to throw on the Chargers. Especially since the second half of this duo, Eric Weddle, just inked a brand new $40 million deal ($19 mill guaranteed); keeping him in San Diego for the next 5 seasons. Yes, he now makes more money than Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu combined; but that's how things work in the NFL. Weddle was garnering a lot of interest from the Texans, Jaguars, and Cowboys, which added pressure onto the front office to lock up their secondary. The loss of Cromartie last season was thought to be devastating but Quentin Jammer, and his 10 year-18 interception experience, helped lessen the blow.

Shaun Phillips and Takeo Spikes are absolute monsters in the 3-4 set, let's just hope Larry English can get rid of that "bust" label and actually start contributing. Teams will have to pick their poison when deciding between pass vs. run but I think they'll minimize their risk and chose the latter. But running against Castillo and Cesaire on the ends is like running into a wall, a bad idea. A lot of their core guys on defense are "old" but the team is in win-now-mode, year after year we have seen the Chargers dominate in the regular season (and the stat book) but seem flustered come playoff time. Philip Rivers is a stud at QB, had a MVP-caliber year in 2010 and is only looking to get better. The most exciting thing is now he has a healthy Antonio Gates and (hopefully) Vincent Jackson for a full season, despite the imminent loss of WR Malcom Floyd, I think this #2 rank passing game will be just fine. Looking for the team to work on their one weakness: the run game, where they rank 15th. The maturation of Ryan Matthews and mixing in of the speedy Darren Sproles should be enough to keep defenses honest and allow Rivers to air it out. When it comes down to it: adding veterans means adding experience, so I'll take the tradeoff and worry about rebuilding after we raise the Lombardi Trophy.

Cy Young Watch

American League:


1. Justin Verlander


2. Jered Weaver


3. James Shields



4. CC Sabathia


5. Josh Beckett





National League:


1. Clayton Kershaw


2. Roy Halladay


3.  Jair Jurrjens


4. Cliff Lee


5. Cole Hamels

The Unknown All-Star Team

American League:

C- Alex Avila (DET) .287, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 3 SB:

This guy ended up sneaking past Russell Martin in the fan vote to earn the starting catcher position, but his leap to All-Star status is as shocking as any story this season. Avila's average has been hovering around .300 (.303 as of July 1st), hopefully his current 1 for 16 July slump will end after the All-Star break. Among eligible catchers; his 10 homers tie him for 6th in the league, while his 46 RBIs are the most among AL catchers and are just two behind Atlanta's Brian McCann for the MLB lead. Even his speed has been underrated, Avila is yet to be caught in all 3 of his attempts, which ties him with 4 other catchers for second in the league (well behind Russell Martin's 7). This has been an absolutely atrocious season for catchers; Mauer, Soto, and Napoli have all been huge disappointments and Buster Posey seems to be done for the season. With Victor Martinez playing DH for the Tigers, the only proven hitting catcher left is Avila's counterpart: National League starter Brian McCann.

1B- Mark Trumbo (LAA) .253, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 8 SB:

Cases could be made for Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Texiera, or Miguel Cabrera to be start at first base for the American League; but Gonzalez won the fan vote and Cabrera made the team as a reserve (leaving Texiera as one of the biggest snubs). But the next tier of players consists of two guys who have really rebounded from bad seasons and criticism: Paul Konerko and Adam Lind. Both these guys are in the top 5 among AL first basemen in both homers and RBIs, while also sporting averages above .300. But it's the Angel's Mark Trumbo who deserves this spot; the rookie was thrown in to replace Kendrys Morales, who suffered a fluke injury while celebrating a walk-off HR, and has flourished batting 6th for the Angels. His 14 HRs and 37 RBIs before the All-Star break are outstanding numbers, especially for a rookie. He is 6th among American League first basemen in HRs and his power, freak-situation, and youth earn him this recognition.

2B- Ben Zobrist (TB) .272, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 58 Runs, 8 SB:

The top 3 second basemen in the AL are all familiar names: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler; but after that the list includes some lesser known guys, such as Howie Kendrick and Ben Zobrist. Like the aforementioned Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick has been a surprsing spark in the Angels' lineup; but he's also been a very versatile fielder (playing 17 games in LF, 15 games at 1B, and 50 games at 2B). Kendrick has been a great hitter all season: batting .307 with 8 HRs, 29 RBIs, 42 runs, and 9 SBs. But Zobrist's ridiculous start to the season gave him the edge over Kendrick on my list, despite the sub .300 average. Since the true test of an "all-star" is solely first half performance then we have to look at April 28th, when the Rays had a day-night doubleheader against the Twins. Zobrist had 5 runs, 7 hits, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs, and a stolen base in those two games (including 8 RBIs in the first game alone). Frankly, that stat line alone makes him deserving of this spot, even though he has only 1 home run since the month of April and none in the entire month of June. Yesterday, on the road against the Yankees, Zobrist showed just how dangerous he could be: finishing a double away from the cycle (hitting a homerun, single, triple and walking all before the 7th inning stretch). Among true-everyday AL second basemen, Zobrist is 3rd in both homeruns and RBIs. Although he did not win the "Final Spot Fan Vote", falling to Paul Konerko, Ben Zobrist has proven that he has the support of his team, the fans, and the entire city of Tampa.


SS- Asdrubal Cabrera/Jhonny Peralta

3B- Alex Gordon

OF- Curtis Granderson, Adam Lind, Brennan Boesch



NL

C-Miguel Montero/Jonathan Lucroy
1B- Michael Morse/Gaby Sanchez
2B- Danny Espinosa/Neil Walker
SS- Starlin Castro
OF- Michael Bourn
3B- Placido Palanco

Sports- Helping Or Hurting Our Economy?

People wonder why we're in a "depression". They question taxes, health care, and job employment. Blame goes towards politicians, the president, political parties, and every one else within arms length; but why don't people question how our tax dollars fund sports stadiums?

The answer is simple. Owners and teams "threaten" to leave their city unless they get a city-funded facility, and a major sports team (whether winning or losing) can stimulate even the weakest economy. But when an owner has 7 other companies and makes $50 million a year in growth, why can't he pay for the stadium out of his own pocket. The fans pay for tickets to sit in "their" arena, buy over-priced refreshments, and spend millions a year in memorabilia. While in return the players get more money than the average family makes in 5 lifetimes, and the owners almost never fail to garner a hefty profit.

AEG built a future Los Angeles NFL stadium, hoping to be the future home to an NFL team. Farmers Insurance will pay $700 million over 30 years for naming rights to this as-yet-nonexistent stadium, plus an additional $300 million if it plays host to two NFL teams. The naming rights to a stadium is worth a potential amount of $1 billion, and it is doesn't even house a team yet. AEG did not need the city to issue bonds for $350 million, saving the tax payers that burden of debt. The Jets and Giants jointly built the "New Meadowlands" in New Jersey, housing both New York football teams. It was deemed the most expensive stadium in the world, costing $1.6 billion to create. Surely within due time the naming rights for this arena will go for a high price tag. Long term offers have been rumored through companies such as AshleyMadison.com and Allianza.

The financial situations of teams is already being question, most recently with the storied LA Dodgers. Owners right off trips to Europe on their private jets as a scouting expense and thus pay a lot less in taxes each fiscal year. It doesn't matter if these funds weren't "designated" for education or health care, re-allocate them; spend those millions of dollars are improving the economy, employing more workers, and proving aid for the poor. The league offices of each sport should not allow a franchise to move solely on the basis of threatening the tax payers for funding. The fans bring enough money into the pockets of owners and players, who live like Kings, they shouldn't have to fund their palaces as well.

The Million Dollar Decision

The Summer of 2010 was filled with rumors about all the big name free agents, and ended auspiciously with the signing of Amar'e Stoudemire. But after the mid-season acquisition of Carmelo Anthony the Knicks are poised for a very bright future. Making the playoffs (and showing positive signs) was a huge step for New York basketball, despite being bounced in the first round by Boston.

For the first time in a decade, the off-season will be about "now", the present, instead of "building for the future". Instead of dumping salaries, New York will look to fine tune their roster for a potential Championship run in 2011-2012. The Knicks have until Friday to either waive Chauncey Billups or pick up the final year of his contract. His team option is set to earn him $14.2 million next season, but only $3.7 million is guaranteed. Waiving him would only cost the team that $3.7 million and allow Chauncey to be an unrestricted free agent.

Obviously $14+ million is an extraordinary price tag for a point guard on the downside of his career. Although he has shown signs of his "Mr. Big Shot" clutch gene, hitting late 3's in the latter part of the season, his lingering injury concerns are cause for worry. The one factor hindering New York from cutting ties with their point guard is the lack of available point guards this summer. Who would replace Chauncey? The options leave much to be desired: Andre Miller, T.J Ford, Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo. Many fans argue to keep Billups for one more season to "bridge the gap" until 2012 (Chris Paul/Derron Williams), but it's blatantly clear that the Knick's biggest hole is at the Center position. Picking up the option on their 34 year old point guard would leave little to no money to throw at a big man, or even add depth to the bench. They could always waive Chauncey and re-sign him after July 1st for less money, if he's willing to take a major pay cut. That would be similar to what the Spurs did with Richard Jefferson last summer. Billups knows he won't make anywhere near $14 million a season on the open market, but with the Knicks financial situation he could definitely find more money somewhere else.

Honestly, unless the Knicks can get Chauncey for $7 mill or under I would be fine with letting him walk. The teams till has Toney Douglas who has really redefined the term "combo guard". Douglas has been an offensive spark plug and the team's best perimeter defender (where Billups was a liability on the defense end), although his performance has been up and down all year. With Amar'e and Carmelo, scoring is not essential for this team's starting point guard so Douglas is capable of taking over the reigns for one season. One of the answers is currently on the roster, Anthony Carter. Sign Carter to a one year deal for around $1 million, he can split time with Douglas and be the back up in 2012. Anthony Carter was, in my opinion, the biggest surprise of the Melo-Trade. Seen as a throw in, Carter was thrown into late game situations and flourished on both ends.

Then use the draft as well as the free agent pool to find one or two "true big men", and possibly even a bargain point guard. Roger Mason, Shelden Williams, Jared Jeffries, and Derrick Brown all come off the books this summer: saving the team around $3.5 million. An intriguing option is Aaron Brooks, a free agent making just $2 million a year. Phoenix will surely part ways with him and if the Knicks could get him cheap then ideally he could run this offense.

There are a couple of big men who New York NEEDS to sign: Alexis Ajinca and Deandre Jordan. Both could be signed to long term deals at an affordable price (less than $2 million a year). Ajinca is only 22 and is 7'2, with a wingspan of 7'9". He doesn't have to score, he just has to get rebounds and block shots. Same with Deandre Jordan, who is a block machine down low. The team would still have $10+ million left to play with, either to get more talent or save for a play at Chris Paul. The only upside to taking Billups' option would be if come February New Orleans makes CP3 available. A trade where New Orleans gets Chauncey (and his would be expiring contract) would match salary-wise. But even without Billups, packaging: draft picks, Fields, Douglas, *the point guard* (say Brooks), and some young guys should be enough for the Hornets--a team in financial disarray looking to salvage something for Chris Paul.

Charles Jenkins- Hofstra's Pride & Joy

"Last Monday Charles Jenkins was summoned to the office of Hofstra athletic director Jack Hayes, and who could blame him. The last time Jenkins had been in Hayes' office, he got the news that Tim Welsh, who had just been named coach, was resigning after a DWI arrest and that Mo Cassara would be taking over. In a prior visit, Jenkins had been told that long-time Hofstra coach Tom Pecora was leaving to take the reins at Fordham"

But this the news was about Charles, Hofstra had decided to retire Jenkins' number 22 before his final home game, Saturday afternoon against Hofstra. Charles wears 22 in honor of his late brother, Kareem Albritton, who was shot back in 2001 at the age of 22. He was named CAA Player of the Year and is lock to win it again in 2010-2011. We have even heard Jenkins' name being mentioned in National Player of the Year talks, he is one of only three players to lead their conference in both points and assists (Duke's Nolan Smith and Cleveland State's Norris Cole).

Jenkins is currently Hofstra's all-time leading scorer with 2,441 points, surpassing Antoine Aguido's previous record, and will continue to add to that total during the CAA tournament. Jenkins is the second leading scorer in CAA history, behind only the great David Robinson of Navy. He was recently named one of 30 finalists for the Nasmith Award (for best collegiate basketball player in the country). Hofstra is sporting a 20-10 record, 14-4 in conference, good for 2nd place in the CAA. If they team can win its next three games they will be the in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001. Making the big dance would be a great way for Charles Jenkins to end his college career.

There has been many discussions over whether Jenkins will play at the next level. Hofstra has only produced one NBA player: Speedy Claxton 2001-2008, but has had many former athletes play overseas in places like Turkey and Puerto Rico. David Satriano of the New York Post said "Charles Jenkins showed yesterday why he has garnered national attention, and might be a lottery pick in this year's NBA Draft." This is a big leap for a guy who wasn't even listed in mock drafts back in the Fall. Jenkins is a phenomenal scorer but he does with efficiency, 53% from field goal range and 42% from behind the arch. Although he is only 6'3" Jenkins weights 220 pounds and is built like a linebacker. Whenever Charles isn't in the gym you could find him in the weight room. His body type is ideal for a NBA combo guard. Hofstra's senior guard is the fourth leading scorer in the country and each day his draft stock seems to be rising. In his senior season he had to deal with losing long time Hofstra coach Tom Pecora and and the resignation of Tim Welsh, all in a single off-season. In addition we saw the transfer of multiple Hofstra players following Pecora's departure to Fordham.

Hopefully the Pride can continue their stellar season and earn a bid into the NCAA tournament. Jenkins has one of the most consistent careers in recent history, most top scorers enter the draft after one or two seasons, but Charles was been at Hofstra for 5 years (after being red-shirted his freshman year). Experts and finally started placing Jenkins on their draft boards, late second round, but a team that has a guard need should really like at Jenkins. He can score from anywhere on the court, rebounds well for his size, and passes the ball like a true point guard. Look for a similar situation to the one we are seeing with the Knicks and Landry Fields: a senior guard from a "mid-level" conference who filled the stat sheet but got little recognition. Landry Fields was taken in the second round but is easily outplaying every rookie selected ahead of him, including guys like John Wall. If it wasn't for Blake Griffin (injured prior to the 2009-2010 season) Landry Fields would be the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Whichever team "gambles" on Charles Jenkins will hit the jackpot. I see him immediately playing significant minutes at both guard spots. His handles, shooting ability, and defensive skills will make him a valuable asset for a rebuilding team. The perfect "win-win" situation would be for the Chicago Bulls to draft Jenkins in the second round. The Bulls' weakest link is Keith Bogans at SG, but the team still has Kyle Korver off the bench. Bogans and Korver can hold their own until Jenkins develops and learns the system. Jenkins would be a great compliment to Derrick Rose and ironically is a hybrid cross between the style's of Rose and Deng. If Jenkins can develop into his role within a season or two the Bulls will be the favorites in the East and a dangerous offensive machine.