NBA Eastern Conference Over/Under Wins Total

Atlanta Hawks

Addition by subtraction. They made big headlines dealing Joe Johnson (and his atrocious contract) to Brooklyn. With a healthy Al Horford, and Josh Smith playing for a new contract, I think this team does even better than last season. The loss of Marvin Williams is of no concern, and at worst is an even swap since they got a serviceable Devin Harris in the deal to manage the point alongside Jeff Teague. Danny Ferry deserves a lot of credit for the work he's done this offseason--STEALING Kyle Korver from Chicago and finding a hidden gem in Anthony Morrow. Quite frankly, I think Atlanta's rotation at SG will prove to be statistically more productive than Joe Johnson, for a fraction of the cost. I think this team goes way over and could realistically finish as the 3 seed. They're in the same group as Brooklyn, New York, and Indiana.

Pick: Over (LOCK)


Boston Celtics- o/u 50.5 Wins

Getting a healthy Jeff Green back. Adding Jason Terry and Courtney Lee. Drafting Jared Sullinger. Plus a half-decent Darko. The only loss? Ray Allen to Miami. Honestly, Jason Terry > Ray Allen. Plain and simple. KG and Pierce will play less minutes; but the depth on their bench will help keep the vets healthy. This team's MVP is Rondo. It's his team, no questions about it. The one hole is a back up PG, a position Doc Rivers has said will be filled by a committee of capable ball handling SGs. 51-31 I'd go way higher if it wasn't for the fact that Boston will probably be able to rest guys often and secure the #2 seed fairly early. What draws me to the over is that in the likely scenario that another team emerges from the 2nd tier to battle them for the second seed, Boston will have to go all-out down the stretch. In that case, along with the "Ray Allen extra motivation factor" which will give them a few extra wins that they probably don't deserve, the number creeps up to 54. This is the first of my 3 jinxes. I pray this goes under, in the hopes New York makes a play for the division title and a top 4 seed.

Pick: Over



Brooklyn Nets- o/u 44.5 Wins (-130 on the over)

The big move to Brooklyn is finally complete. We saw the fancy new arena and "classy" jersey styles. After acquiring Joe Johnson and resigning Derron Williams, this team really does look like a fantasy team. The biggest issue with this team will be can they stop anybody? Where is the defense going to come from. Brook Lopez is not a force down low. I suppose Gerald Wallace is still an elite defender, but that's about it. As seen by the -130 juice, clearly the public is betting the over. Quite frankly, I think the new city, new arena, new owner, new jerseys, new fan base will all factor together to give Brooklyn a few extra wins. I put this team at around 45 wins though, so it's a close call (and if the public keeps it up we could see this increase to upwards of 45).

Pick: Over



Charlotte Bobcats- o/u 19.5 Wins

In all honestly, I think 19 wins is the exact number. This is a BAD team. They'll be in the hunt for the #1 pick again this season. The only way you could get me to watch the Bobcats play in person is if you promise me a seat next to MJ. Charlotte will somehow manage 12-18 wins, no more.

Pick: Under


Chicago Bulls- o/u 48 Wins

WAY too high. No D.Rose until when? January? February? That's the biggest question mark going into this NBA season. Plus the front office completely destroyed the "bench mob" which will make filling in for Rose even harder. I think they sneak into the playoffs and once they get healthy, no one is going to want to see them in the first round.

Pick: Under (LOCK)


Cleveland Cavaliers- o/u 31.5 Wins

I think Kyrie will be an MVP candidate this season. Unfortunately, I really dislike the selection of Dion Waiters. This team will go as far as Irving can take them. Maybe Varejo can help teach Tristan Thompson mature into what scouts though he could be.

Pick: Over



Detroit Pistons- o/u 32.5 Wins

I think this team gets upwards of 35 wins. I'm a big fan of their young nucleus. They were almost a .500 team in the 2nd half of last season. Detroit only needs to improve by 2 games from last season's pace to get over this total, I definitely think they've gotten at least "2 wins" better.


Pick: Over (LOCK)



Indiana Pacers- o/u 50.5 Wins (-130 on the over)

I don't think this team is as good as last year. I think they get to 45-50 wins. Indiana doesn't have a real superstar. Just look at the Atlanta Hawks (who traded away a max. player), they have TWO players better than ANYONE on the Pacers roster.

Pick: Under



Miami Heat- o/u 61.5 Wins

Injuries could obviously derail this number. Another issue could be if they decide to "cruise" through the season (a la San Antonio) and take nights off, knowing they can shift gears in the playoffs. With all that being said, I think this goes over easily. LeBron is embracing playing power forward and Erik Spoelstra is vehement about this "position-less" basketball. It's scary to imagine the possibilities after adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen--2 DEADLY shooters. Throw in a healthy Wade, 65-17 is my guess. You can't predict injuries, and to hit 62-20 you can't have any significant injuries--that's the only thing preventing them from being one of my "locks." As a Knick fan, this is also (hopefully) a jinx. I'd gladly take the hit to my wallet if it means seeing this team fall apart.

Pick: Over



Milwaukee Bucks- o/u 37.5 Wins

I think Ilyasova is a stud. Resigning him was one of the most underrated "moves" of the offseason. 5 years, $40 million? Compare that to Amare Stoudemaire... Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are electric, fun to watch guards; but their lack of defense will be the downfall of this team being anything but average. They have about $20 million coming off the books this summer, not counting Jennings and Ellis who are also in contract years, so it looks like they're rebuilding around Ilyasova and a young group consisting of Tobias Harris, John Henson, and Doron Lamb. I watched Tobias A LOT every since he was a Long Island prodigy from Half Hollow Hills. His size and skills allow him to shift between SF/PF, making him an ideal tweener to play alongside Ilyasova and Henson. Personally, I think they should've drafted Tyler Zeller, a bigger body who can play the center position in a fairly "small" Eastern Conference. I can't really see them attracting big name players, despite their cap room, and wouldn't reccommend giving big money to Jennings or Ellis. Things will get worse before they get better in Milwaukee. I think 37 is the perfect number.

P.S This will be the most I/anyone else writes about Milwaukee until 2013 Mock Drafts start springing up.

Pick: Under


New York Knicks- o/u 46.5 Wins (**DROPPED to 45.5 Wins**)

Can I be unbiased here? To start off, anything less than an ECF appearance will be unacceptable to Dolan and Knicks fans alike. To be honest, I was quite disappointed when we let Lin walk. For a team that's had NO issue throwing around money to guys like Jerome James and Eddy Curry, how do you let Lin walk when you can have him for $5 million a season for the next two years. Worry about the back end of the contract in 2015--when you can use him as a trade chip (or better yet, dangle him to LA for CP3 at the deadline this year) or waive him to spread out the cap hit and avoid luxury tax penalties. Larry Coon did a wonderful job outlining the options back in July. But this rant is better suited for another piece. Now I think Amare's injury will really give us a look at how this team could play with him out of the starting lineup. Throw Carmelo at the 4 against smaller lineups, and Thomas or Camby in there versus bigger teams. I think the starting 5, when at full strength, should be: Felton-Shumpert-Brewer-Melo-Chandler. With J.R Smith as the 6th man, Kidd splitting time at PG, and Amare coming in with the second unit. But bench a guy on a max contract? I guess that's why they pay Mike Woodson the big bucks to make decisions like this. Given the injuries (Shumpert out until January, Amare and Brewer out to start the season) and the unprecedented age of this team, I'll put my fandom aside and be object in saying: under. Not by much though. Like mentioned earlier, I put them in the 2nd tier- Brooklyn, Atlanta, Indiana group. That gives the ability to finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th in the East (and means they will most likely have a 1st round matchup with one of those 3 teams). At worst, a slight improvement in seeding over last year. Everything has to go right for this team to reach 50 wins; and a record that's closer to .500 is more likely. This is another instance where I'd happily trade lossing the money for being wrong on this pick. Again, I'm going for the jinx. 45-37.

Side Note (for Knick fans): If you happen to find a $5 bill on the floor I recommend wagering it on the Knicks at +5000 to win the NBA Championship. Why? For the hell of it. I can't even begin to imagine how gratifying it would be to call the Knicks NBA Champions; but the only thing that could make it better would be realizing I won $250 all because I blindly threw down $5 back in October. Now you'll already have the money set aside to preorder that iPhone 6 coming out in September 2013.

Pick: Under 


Orlando Magic- o/u 24.5 Wins

At first glance, it seems a little high. Obviously we all know about the Dwight saga; but what's astonishing is how they didn't get back Gasol or Bynum or even Houston's plethora of picks and young assets. Instead they come away with a trio of rotation/average players. Makes no sense.  I even think the Ryan Anderson for Gustavo Ayon is a poor tradeoff. I think they're tanking, BIG time. Any potential impacts guys left on this roster will be dealt to strengthen their fight for the #1 pick. Jameer Nelson is going to be the only guy left, a pretty good player; but he just got paid--Any incentive left to perform? Frankly, it doesn't even matter what he does. Orlando is going to be selling its fans on the 2013 draft (not the best draft class to be tanking for). I think their the worst team in the East. Anywhere from 21-26 wins is where I see this team finishing. For whatever reason, I think their recent trend to screw everything up will continue as the finish towards the bottoms of the standings, rather than right at the bottom. Slightly hurting their lottery odds in the process. The possibility that Glen Davis can have a breakout season makes me less inclined to make the under here a "lock." In fact, I almost talked myself into the over by re-reading the last couple sentences I wrote. I better end this now.

Pick: Under 


Philadelphia 76ers- o/u 47 Wins

35-47. I could make a case for that to be Philly's 2012-2013 record. The losses of Lou Williams and Jodie Meeks will be greater than everyone thinks. I don't like the addition of Nick Young, who  really just chucks up 3 pointers at a high enough frequency that he's now considered a "scorer" and really doesn't much defense. Speaking of defense, 76ers fans are going to miss Iguadola. I loved his game. The front office HAD to do this trade as soon as they got the call saying they could get Andrew Bynum. But Bynum is already dealing with injuries and seems out of shape. Combine that with his history of missing CHUNKS of games at a time and blatant immaturity, I don't see this team gelling with a nucleus of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner. The advanced statistics back me up on that notion. They have the best center in the Eastern Conference, but I think they finish 4th in the Atlantic Division and sneak out the 6 seed. I'll make it easy: 42-42, a .500 team (assuming Bynum plays 70 games, if he plays 60 I go back to my 35 wins pick). Let this sit in for a while: this is Andrew Bynum's team...

Pick: Under


Toronto Raptors- o/u 33 Wins (-125 on the over) (**UP TO 33.5 WINS**)

There's good reason why this is seeing some action (as noted by the -125 juice). I'm a fan of this over. Interesting team, headed in the right direction.The Atlantic Division is going to make for some GREAT basketball. Losing out Nash (the hometown guy) gives this team a little big of extra motivation in my mind. I think Lowry is better than Nash is. That young, versatile front-line is going to create tough matchups for most teams. Demar Derozen is fun to watch. The Landry Field signings was purely out of spite/a blockade to New York trading for Nash. It backfired in their face that they came away without Nash and their stuck overpaying Fields. But as a Knick fan, I can attest to how scrappy this kid plays. His offensive game has been hard to watch at times; but he's an outstanding rebounder for a wing player (up their with LeBron in that realm) and has a high basketball IQ. 37-45--I think they have a shot at catching Philadelphia for the 4th spot in the Atlantic (meaning they could sneak into the playoffs).

Side Note: Ed Davis over Greg Monroe will haunt this team.

Pick: Over (LOCK)



Washington Wizards- o/u 28.5 Wins

This opened in the 32-33 win range (congrats to anyone who got the under on that total). After the recent injuries to John Wall and Nene, also known as the 2 most important players on this roster, it correctly dropped by a few wins. I don't think this team fits well together. I like the collection of young talent and think highly of Bradley Beal; but John Wall has regressed in my eyes and Ariza/Okafor are a waste of space. Not much to say about this team going forward. It looks like an ugly season is on the horizon for Wizards fans.

Pick: Under

Fantasy Football Sleep & Busts

Sleepers:


QB- Carson Palmer
RB- Ryan Williams
WR- Justin Blackmon
TE- Jared Cook

Busts:


QB- Peyton Manning
RB- Frank Gore
WR- Brandon Lloyd
TE- Jason Witten

Hornets Close To Deal For Robin Lopez

The Hornets appear to be close to a sign & trade for Robin Lopez. This deal would be completed as a 3 team trade, also including Phoenix and Minnesota. New Orleans will also acquire Hakim Warrick in the deal from the Suns. Minnesota will send Wes Johnson and first round pick to Phoenix.

For now, the Timberwolves do not seem to be acquiring any players or gaining any future picks; but this trade would clear cap space for Minnesota (the current favorite to land Andrei Kirilenko).

Ranking the Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Additions: Perry Jones (draft), Hasheem Thabeet

Key Losses: NONE

2. Los Angeles Lakers

Key Additions: Steve Nash (s&t), Antwan Jamison (FA)

Key Losses: Ramon Sessions (FA)

3. San Antonio Spurs

Key Additions: Boris Diaw (re-signed), Danny Green (re-signed)

Key Losses: NONE

4. Los Angeles Clippers

Key Additions: Jamal Crawford (FA), Lamar Odom (trade)

Key Losses: Mo Williams (trade), Nick Young (FA), Reggie Evans (trade)

5. Memphis Grizzlies

Key Additions: Jerryd Bayless (FA)

Key Losses: O.J Mayo (FA)

6. Denver Nuggets

Key Additions: Anthony Randolph

Key Losses:

7. Utah Jazz

Key Additions: Mo Williams (trade), Marvin Williams (trade)

Key Losses: Devin Harris (trade)

8. Dallas Mavericks

Key Additions: Chris Kaman (FA), Darren Collision (trade), O.J Mayo (FA), Elton Brand (amnesty bid)

Key Losses: Brendan Haywood (amnesty), Jason Kidd (FA), Jason Terry (FA)

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Key Additions: Chase Budinger (trade)

Key Losses: Michael Beasley (FA), Darko Millicic (amnesty)




15. Phoenix Suns

Key Additions: Goran Dragic (FA), Kendall Marshall (draft), Michael Beasley (FA), Luis Scola (amnesty bid)

Key Losses: Steve Nash (s&t)

16. Houston Rockets

Key Additions: Jeremy Lin (RFA), Jeremy Lamb (draft), Royce White (draft), Terrence Jones (draft), Jonas

Key Losses: Luis Scola (amnesty), Samuel Dalembert (trade), Kyle Lowry (trade), Goran Dragic (trade), Chase Budinger (trade)

Knicks Obtain Camby in Sign & Trade Deal

"Camby's contract will be for $13.2 million over three years. The Rockets will receive guard Toney Douglas , center Jerome Jordan , forward Josh Harrellson and second-round picks in 2014 and 2015, according to a league source."


I'll be honest, when I first saw "$13.2 million" I was shocked (even spread out over the three years). But an average salary of $4.4 million per season is actually good value for what Camby brings to the table. His rebounding, defense, and veteran leadership will surpass any value Josh Harrelson, Toney Douglas, and Jerome Jordan would've provided this season combined. Those two 2nd rounders were "sweetners" and the only real incentive for Houston to play ball; but despite their low superficial value, I think those two picks (and the "cash" which is really just New York having to pay all of Toney Douglas' salary) was the point where New York overpaid for Marcus Camby.


Regardless, Camby adds depth to the Knick's frontcourt and will primarily serve as Tyson Chandler's backup (an upgrade over Jared Jeffries). I wouldn't mind bringing back Jeffries for the veteran's minimum to serve as our 3rd big; but the front office needs to shift their focus onto finding a 3rd string PG and wing players who can fill out the roster and who are committed on the defensive side of the ball.

Best Bargains and Worst Contracts In Sports

Every sports fan has heard of Eddy Curry's contract that was signed back in 2005, $60 million over six-years with the New York Knicks, and thankfully it has come to an end. We are using the term "contract" very loosely here, by definition it requires "both sides for receive consideration." Curry only appeared in 222 of a possible 492 games and never appeared in the playoffs. Additionally, his contributions during his two best seasons in New York only helped produce 0.6 for the team (according to advanced statistics) and the final three seasons he's managed to produce minus 3.9 wins. So this agreement should be more accurately called a gift: the Knicks "donating" to Eddy Curry, which have now ended. It's time we examine other humorously ridiculous contracts. Which contract in sports rivals Eddy Curry's in comedic value?


Upon investigation, Barry Zito is clearly baseball's version of Eddy Curry: a parasite that keeps on sucking dollars out of its host's pockets. Giants fans are feeling the same frustration, anger, and pure disgust that Knicks fans felt for six seasons. Zito has a contract that similarly seems to never die. At least Knicks fan have rid themselves of Curry and his massive price tag; finally enjoying success and players living up to their contracts (so far). Unlike Curry, Zito is still milking millions from his team, owed $46 million over the next two seasons and even a potential 2014 option that could vest*. The total contract signed back in 2006 is valued at $126 million over seven years. It would be a stretch to call Zito's performance over that stretch average. An under .500 record and ERA** approaching 5 are numbers worthy of being released or sent down to the minors in most cases. Somehow San Francisco managed to win a championship despite their handicap, of course their highest paid player was not a member of the World Series roster.


It's hard to have a contract as catastrophic as Eddy Curry's in the NHL, simply because their salary cap system does not allow it. In simple terms, each year the NHL establishes a salary cap and a salary floor, the floor being approximately $16 million the cap. More importantly, no one player's annual salary can exceed 20% of that year's assigned salary cap. Despite these restrictions, the Tampa Bay Lighting did everything in their power to try and top the Knick's in terms of myopathy. The team signed Vincent Lecavalier to an eleven-year, $85 million contract back in July of 2008. That's an average salary of almost $8 million a season, a figure that is by no means as mind-boggling as others mentioned in this article; but within the context of the NHL, is equally absurd. The contract was front-loaded*** so the first three seasons Lecavalier has been earning $10 million annually. He was the highest paid player in both the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons, and this year is only topped by Brad Richards ($12 million from the Rangers). To give a sense of just how high this amount was, let's see the highest theoretical amount a player could earn under the NHL's salary cap rules: 09-10: $11.36 million, 10-11: $11.88 million, 11-12: $12.86 million. So Lecavalier was essentially given a "max contract". This is term commonly used in NBA free agency; but only when discussing the contracts of the league's elite players such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Vincent Lecavalier's production has been far from elite. In fact, last season, he finished tied 49th among NHL players in goals scored and 71st in total points-- not the type of production you expect from the league's highest paid player, in only the second year of an ELEVEN year deal.








I didn't consider any player still on a rookie contract for this list. Of course Jeremy Lin would be the easy choice making around $700k; but I found a more intriguing example after analysis of free agent deals and extensions. Kyle Lowry is by far the best bargain in the NBA today. During a time where max contracts are being handed out by the bunches, Lowry's deal with the Rockets only pays him $5.75 million this season. He is putting up gaudy numbers in the first half of the season: 15.6 ppg, 7.6 apg, 5.3 rpg, to go along with 2 steals and 2 threes. Based on these numbers, any fan will agree that not only is he the biggest steal in the league, but it's outrageous that he isn't playing in the All-Star game this weekend. Lowry does everything a point guard should do, plus more, for this Rockets ball club. When they've need him to score, he lights it up: 32 points (7-8 from 3 point range) against the Jazz just last weekend; or dish out 18 assist and only score 2 points (both on free-throws) like we saw back on New Year's Eve, when they need him to distribute. On top of all the counting stats and eye-popping numbers, a lot of his value doesn't show up in the box score: leadership, poise, and the toughness he shows taking numerous charges despite his size and position on the court. Before the 2010 season Kyle Lowry was a restricted free agent. Lost in the drama of LeBron's "Decision" and formation of Miami's Big 3, the Rockets matched Cleveland's 4 year $23 million offer sheet, retaining his services. Clearly we see why Daryl Morey was eager to keep this dynamic player-maker. 


Claude Giroux is the complete opposite of 

*Vest-


**ERA- Earned Run Average


***front-loaded=

Lin-sanely Deep

With Baron Davis' anticipated return, the singing of J.R Smith, and emergence of Jeremy Lin; the Knicks have a plethora of capable guards on their roster. The backcourt is becoming pretty crowded, and allocating minutes between guys is gonna be a tough call for Mike D'Antoni. Obviously Jeremy Lin has more than earned the starting point guard job and can be penciled in for 35+ minutes a night (excluding blowouts).

The shooting guard position has been the question mark the last two seasons but Landry Fields has become the regular starter due to his versatility and he should keep that spot after the recent relationship he developed with Jeremy Lin.

J.R Smith made his debut today and almost overtook Lin as the Garden favorite. Knocking down threes, pumping up the crowd, and running the floor, Smith is going to provide the athleticism and bench scoring Mike D'Antoni's squad really needs. It may seem like a good idea to insert him into the starting shooting guard spot because of Fields' recent erratic play, but Smith has been a Six Man of the Year candidate during his days in Denver and should thrive in that role (provided he plays substantial minutes off the bench).

Iman Shumpert seems to be the guy who will see the biggest decrease in playing time. Before Lin, Shumpert was the starter and by default getting big minutes. Even with Douglas kept in the dog-house, Shumpert will be the 4th option at guard. The one thing that will guarantee big minutes for Shumpert is his outstanding defense. He will likely come off the bench as a combo guard, throw him in there along side Lin or even have him play some point.

Bill Walker played some huge minutes and knocked down big shots for this team during the recent winning streak. Today he was a late scratch that allowed for the Knicks to activate J.R Smith; and we all saw how that turned out today. Smith will probably take the minutes and shots that Walker has recently had, which puts Walker into a reserve role; not quite Toney Douglas status, but close to it.