Saturday, December 4, 2010

Week 13: NFL Picks Against The Spread

1. Cleveland Browns +4 @ Miami Dolphins

Take the Browns with the points. I like the upset here and the only reason the Dolphins are favored is because the game is in Miami. But this Miami has had a "home field disadvantage" as 4 of their losses have come at home. Between the Marlins and Dolphins not many games are won at Sun Life Stadium, and not many fans attend. The Browns are a team that plays up to their competition and shows up for big games. Their two biggest wins this season are extremely impressive: beating the Saints and New Orelans and man-handling the Patriots by 20. They also played tight games on the road against Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Plus if Rodney Stuckey had not fumbled the ball in overtime then the Browns could've added a win over the Jets to their resume. The Dolphins have been banged up but Chad Henne returns this week after suffering a shoulder injury. With Brandon Marshall non-existent Davone Bess and Brett Hartline need to step up for the Dolphins to win this game. Neither teams play great defense but Peyton Hillis will come out and produce so the Browns are the safe play to cover and possibly win.

2. Buffalo Bills +7 @ Minnesota Vikings

Forget the records in this matchup (both teams would love do this) and look at the how both teams have played. The Bills only have 2 wins and were winless until week 10, but they also have 3 over time losses. They took the Ravens and Steelers to over time, 2 of the top teams in the AFC, as well as the NFC west leading Chiefs. If you just look at the season numbers the Bills look pretty ugly. But people who watch games every week have seen the Bills play every opponent tough and could easily have 6 wins. The Bills defense and Brett Favre have both been non existent this season and I see Ryan Fitzpatrick and breakout wide out Steve Johnson continuing their connection against the Vikings secondary. The running game will be less of a factor as Peterson is a little banged up and Fred Jackson is up and down week-to-week. This game is going to be a shootout due to lack of defense. Take the Bills with the points and the over easily, my sleeper bet: Bills ML.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans are at home and getting the requisite three points, similar to the Dolphins. This is a division battle and the Jaguars are leading the division over the Colts (Yes you heard that right and yes it is week 13). The Titans are deciding between Rusty Smith and Kerry Colllins, obviously Collins gives them a better chance but I don't trust either one. With Kenny Britt still sidelined and Randy Moss leaving his talents in New England, the Titans are left with a one dimensional offense attack again. Last week the Texans recognized this and stacked the box against to stop the run. Chris Johnson had his worst game of the reason with only 7 yards on 5 carries and I bet the Titans regret releasing Lagarutte Blount right about now. We should expect Johnson to bounce back but it won't be enough to carry the anemic Titans against a hot Jaguar team. David Garrard is playing very well as of late, finding multiple targets like Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas, Marcedes Lewis, and of course Maurice Jones-Drew. Sims-Walker should return to action this week giving Garrard 4 viable threats to pass to. In the running game I see Maurice Jones-Drew having a better overall game with more yards from scrimmage than Chris Johnson. MJD has been on a tear of late and the Jaguars fate lies on his hands (and his feet). The Jagaurs win big on the road putting pressure on the Colts to win against Dallas. Take the Jags and the points to win by double digits.

4. New Orleans -7 @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Saints are playing like the defending super bowl champs and Bree's has lost his madden curse in exchange for the Sport's Man of the Year anti-curse (see Tom Brady). The Bengals haven’t won a game since week 3 and only have 2 wins (1 was against a terrible Panther team). The Bills decimated the Bengals two weeks ago and there is no reason why New Orleans shouldn't cruise to victory on Sunday. Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson look well past their prime and Ochocino and T.O are getting increasingly frustrated with the team's lack of offense. They are cruising right now and end the season playing the Ravens, Falcons, and Buccaneers. Sean Payton will not allow his team to lose focus or look ahead because they need to keep pace the Falcons in the divison race. The Saints win big and the game will be out of hand by the third quarter. Take New Orleans and give the points without worry.

5. San Fransico 49ers @ Green Bay Packers -10

The 49ers are coming off a victory on Monday night but it was against the Arizona Cardinals and an NFC west battle which severely diminishes the victory. Frank Gore suffered a broken hip early Monday night and was placed on the IR, which will certainly lower team morale. Even Mike Singletary won't be able to inspire a team lead by Troy Smith and Brian Westbrook against an NFC powerhouse. The Packers lost a tough game to the Falcons as both teams were looking to earn a bye. But the Packers will look to take their anger out on San Francisco and hope the Falcons fall on the road to Tampa Bay. The Packers win by two touchdowns at Lambeau.

6. Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks -5

Take the Seahawks. The Panther's are the worst team in the NFL and the Seahawks play in the NFC West which means they still have a chance to win the division. Their defense is underrated and Seattle is very good at home. Give the points whether it's -5 or -55.

Extra: Chiefs/Broncos over 48- The best play of week is the over on the Cheifs/Broncos game. There is a lot of animosity between these two teams after the Broncos ran up the score the last time. Look for the Chiefs to do the same this game. Orton to Lloyd and Cassel to Bowe have surpassed Manning to Wayne and Brady to Moss this season by a large measure. Look for those connections to be prevalent throughout the game in this shootout. We also can't forget Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the Cheifs back field so look for those guys to go for around 100 yards and a score each. Those aforementioned players alone could account for at least 42 points (6 touchdowns) not to mention Orton and Cassel’s ability to spread the ball around. Look for a lob sided game where the Chief’s might beat the over on their own.

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